The USD/CAD price analysis shows a return of bearish momentum as the Canadian dollar gains with oil due to Middle East tensions. At the same time, the dollar was firm as investors bought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions.

Oil prices rallied on Tuesday after Iran fired missiles at Israel, escalating the war in the Middle East. The Israel-Gaza war has slowly widened to include Iran and Lebanon, threatening to be a bigger war that will likely disrupt the oil supply. Supply disruptions will tighten the market, boosting prices. 

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar surged because Canada is a net oil exporter. Consequently, oil price increases result in more revenues for the country, strengthening its currency. At the same time, upbeat domestic data supported the loonie. Notably, manufacturing business activity rose for the first time in seventeen months. Canada’s PMI increased from 49.5 to 50.4 in September, recording an expansion.

Meanwhile, the US dollar rallied against most of its peers due to safe-haven inflows. The conflict between Iran and Israel dampened risk appetite, resulting in a rush to safer assets. However, since the loonie was also surging, USD/CAD fell. 

Elsewhere, data in the previous session revealed steady manufacturing business activity in the US. Moreover, job openings rose, indicating high demand for labor. The US ISM manufacturing PMI missed forecasts but held steady at 47.2. Meanwhile, there were 8.04 million job vacancies compared to forecasts of 7.64 million.

Market participants are now awaiting the all-important nonfarm payrolls report for more clues on the outlook for Fed rate cuts.

USD/CAD key events today

• US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears aim for the 1.3425 support

(Click on image to enlarge)

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken below the 30-SMA after finding resistance at the 0.5 Fib level. Bulls had taken over but failed to keep the price above the SMA. The price recently broke out of a bullish channel with an impulsive move that paused at the 1.3425 support level. 

If the subsequent bullish move was corrective, bears might make another impulsive leg lower. Therefore, the price might break below the 1.3425 level to make lower lows.

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