The USD/CAD outlook shows strong bullish sentiment as the Canadian dollar wallows near a 3-month low after a second Bank of Canada rate cut. Moreover, the central bank signaled further easing if inflation continues cooling.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 4.5%. This was the second rate cut after it became the first major central bank to cut in June. The last inflation figures were softer than expected, weakening the economy. Therefore, Canada’s central bank had every reason to cut rates. If this trend continues, there will be another rate cut soon. Notably, there is a 50% chance the BoC will lower borrowing costs in September. 

Elsewhere, data revealed that Canadian factory sales fell by 2.6% in June. This is another sign of weak demand that will encourage policymakers to continue the rate-cutting cycle.

Meanwhile, in the US, investors still expect the first rate cut in September. However, economic reports continue showing resilience that might keep policymakers cautious. Data on Wednesday showed the US composite PMI index rose to 55.0, indicating robust business activity. This followed another upbeat report last week, which showed better-than-expected sales.

The next economic indicator is the GDP estimate for the second quarter. Economists expect a bigger expansion in Q2 than in Q1, further highlighting economic resilience. After that, the core PCE report will show the state of inflation on Friday.

USD/CAD key events today

• US advance GDP q/q
• US unemployment claims

USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls charge ahead with the 1.3850 level in sight

(Click on image to enlarge)

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has continued its rally, breaking past the 1.3800 resistance level. Bulls are now eyeing the 1.3850 key level. However, the price has gone far above the 30-SMA without pulling back. At the same time, the RSI trades in the overbought region, an extreme for bullish momentum. 

Therefore, USD/CAD might soon pause or pull back to retest the 30-SMA before continuing the uptrend. However, if bulls are still strong, they will break past the 1.3850 level without pausing.

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