USD/CAD Forecast March 22-26 – Mixed Data Leaves Canadian Dollar Steady At 1.25

USD/CAD was down slightly last week. There are no Canadian economic releases in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.  

Manufacturing sales jumped 3.1% in January, up from 0.9% beforehand. This was the strongest gain since June. Inflation ticked lower in February. Headline CPI dipped from 0.6% to 0.5%, while the core reading fell from 0.5% to 0.3%. ADP Employment plunged by 100.8 thousand, after a dismal read of -231.2 a month earlier. Headline Retail Sales fell 1.1% and the core reading declined 1.2%. These reading were better than the forecast, but marked a second decline in as many months.

In the US, retail sales disappointed in February. The headline reading fell by 3.0% and the core reading came in at -2.7%, after both releases showed gains of over 5% a month earlier. The FOMC policy meeting was generally dovish, with policymakers reiterating that the Fed had no plans to raise interest rates before 2023. Still, the growth forecast was upbeat, as the US recovery shows signs of gathering steam. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index soared from 23.1 to 51.8, and is now at its highest level in some 48 years.

USD/CAD daily graph with resistance and support lines on it. 

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.2869.

1.2784 (mentioned last week) is next.

1.2631 switched to resistance in mid-March, when CAD started a strong rally.

1.2459 is the first level of support.

1.2308 has held in support since February 2018.

1.2155 is the final support level for now..

I am neutral on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar has benefited from the recent rise in higher oil prices, but the crude oil rally may have run out of steam. The US stimulus package has been approved by Congress and should stimulate the economy, which is bullish for the US dollar (FXC, UUP).

 

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