E US Stock Market Weekly Review Sept. 14 - 18

A third consecutive week with losses for the US stock market, although minor ones. The small-cap stocks outperformed as Russell 2000 closed higher more than 2% for the week. It seems that indeed September 2020 will be a month with a negative performance for the major US stock indices, but history and patterns in trading and investing are by no means guaranteed. The main news for the previous week was the fact that the Federal Reserve signaled that it intends to keep rates near zero through at least 2023. This is to stimulate the economy and allow it to recover from the recent coronavirus crisis. But at the same time, it signals weakness for the US economy, and this is the main reason for this slide in September 2020 for all stock indices and mainly tech stocks, which were the outperformers and still are up to date.

Economic News

The week’s economic calendar sent one more time some mixed signals about the path of economic recovery for the US economy. The Industrial Production MoM came in at 0.4%, much less than the forecast of 1.0%, and the Retails Sales MoM were also weak with a figure of 0.6%, less than the estimate of 1.0%. The housing market continues to show strength as the NAHB Housing Market Index figure was 83, higher than the estimate of 78, and a number above 50 shows that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor, which is positive for the housing market. The labor market continues to struggle in 2020 as the Initial Jobless Claims came in at 860K, higher than the forecast of 850K, and the Continuing Jobless Claims continue to be high, with a figure of 12628K, still better than the forecast of 13000K.

According to the latest FOCM economic projections released in September 2020 “The committee now sees a full-year GDP decline of 3.7%, considerably better than the 6.5% drop forecast in June. However, it lowered its 2021 outlook to 4% from 5% and 2022 to 3% from 3.5%. The committee expects 2.5% GDP growth in 2023.”

Source: CNBC

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Disclosure: I have no position in any stock mentioned

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