U.S. New Vehicle Sales For June Should Surprise Downward

U.S. new vehicle sales for June should drop for the second straight month. According to the Bloomberg consensus, they should retrace to 16.50m(e) SAAR (down from 16.99m in May).

Most of specialists I’m following closely are betting on a larger decline:

1- Industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said “The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.8 million units, up 2.6 million units from 2020 but down 1.4 million units from 2019.”

2- In the meantime, “Vehicle sales in June are forecast by Cox Automotive to fall to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.4 million, up from last year’s 13.0 million but down from May’s 17.0 million pace. ”

3- Wards Intelligence expects sales to reach 15.80 million SAAR in June.

The weakness of new vehicle sales in June is mainly due to a lack of supply amid the ongoing chip shortage. In this context, car buyers have switched towards used cars, which has resulted in a spike of prices (see the chart below).