U.S. New Vehicle Sales Fell To A Three-Month Low In November

As I previewed, U.S. new vehicle sales declined for the second straight month in November and came below expectations. According to Wards data, they fell to 15.55m SAAR (a 3-month low), down from 16.21m in October.

In this context, the auto sector will probably contribute negatively to November retail sales that will be released on December 16th. In addition, other proxies, such as Visa spending cards, also pointed to a slowdown in November.

It confirms my view that, at best, 4Q GDP growth will slow dramatically compared to 3Q while another GDP contraction still looks possible at this stage. The fact is the rapid spread of Covid-19 will force more states to implement restrictive measures before quarter-end. As a reminder, the biggest contributor to U.S. GDP, namely California, is on the verge of implementing another lockdown with ICU beds already close to maximum capacity.

 

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