Event risks are set to intensify in the week ahead, including a long list of Federal Reserve speeches, as well as the all-critical employment situation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Monday, December 3

The week gets off to a fast start Monday, with Fed governor Lael Brainard slated to give a keynote speech at a conference on the evolving structure of the U.S. Treasury market in New York.

Also, Markit will provide its final manufacturing PMI for November, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will report manufacturing numbers, and total vehicle sales will roll onto the wires.

Tuesday, December 4

The events will be followed on Tuesday by an economic press briefing hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The New York Fed said the briefing will look at local employment and labor force trends in New York City, New York State, and New Jersey, and will provide an analysis on labor market tightness and the types of jobs gained by area.

New York Fed president John Williams will deliver opening remarks at the event, where he will also join a panel of economists to field questions.

Market participants may tune into the event to glean any clues ahead of the November jobs report due ahead of the weekend. 

The State of New York added about 22k jobs in October 2018 from the prior month, representing about 8.8% of total U.S. gains, and boasted a 0.7% year-on-year fall in its unemployment rate.

Wednesday, December 5

Meanwhile, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommended all fixed-income cash markets close Wednesday in honor of the national day of mourning for former U.S. President George H.W. Bush.

SIFMA made its recommendation following President Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. government will be closed on Wednesday in honor of Mr. Bush.

SIFMA has also recommended that secondary market cash transactions in U.S. government and federal agency securities, executed on Tuesday, December 4, and normally settling on Wednesday, December 5, should instead settle on Thursday, where practical.

Settlements in municipal and corporate securities will not be affected given that DTCC/NSCC will remain open on Wednesday.

The government closure Wednesday also seems to have waylaid Fed chair Powell’s testimony before the Senate’s Joint Economic Committee.

Powell’s comments recently spurred a lift in the U.S. equity markets, when he said at the Economic Club of New York that while interest rates are still low by historical standards, they remain “just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy — that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.”

The market continues to widely expect the central bank to hike rates at the conclusion to its two-day monetary policy meeting on December 19, however, uncertainties over the future path of increases has become less clear for the year ahead.

The Joint Economic Committee said Monday that it is working to reschedule its hearing with Powell.

In the meantime, Fed vice chair for supervision Randal Quarles has been scheduled to speak Wednesday at Stanford University’s biennial State of the West Symposium.

Also, ADP is on the radar to release private payroll data for November, and the EIA is slated to give an update on petroleum inventories, amid a recent surge in oil prices inspired by Canadian – as well as other potential – supply cuts, as well as an easing of trade war worries.

Blue Line Futures president Bill Baruch noted that crude oil “should be supported by the positive news on the U.S. and China trade front but this will not take any focus away from mounting domestic stockpiles and the OPEC production meeting Thursday.”

Baruch pointed to the EIA’s reported increases of crude inventories for the past ten weeks and said that crude “cannot bottom until this streak is broken.”

It is unclear if the EIA, a government agency will report as scheduled Wednesday given the national day of mourning.

Baruch continued that the market generally expects at least a 1 mbpd cut Thursday, when the OPEC and non-OPEC members meet, while anything “less will certainly underwhelm the market” and push crude oil below US$50. However, he added that depending on where crude
“finds itself at the time of the announcement as late as Friday, only a cut of more than 1.3 mbpd could have a bullish impact.”

Thursday, December 6

On Thursday, Fed chair Powell is on the calendar to speak at the Housing Assistance Council’s Rural Housing Conference in Washington, D.C.

Other Federal Reserve speakers are also on tap to deliver messages, including Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic’s economic outlook in Atlanta, Georgia.

On the economic front, Thursday will bring updates on the U.S. trade balance, as well as factory orders for October.

Friday, December 7

Ahead of the weekend, investors’ attention will likely be squarely focused on labor market conditions, with the all critical non-farm payrolls report for November.

A total of 250,000 jobs were added in the prior month after Hurricane Florence hurt September’s gains. Among the sectors that saw solid activity in October were health care, manufacturing and construction, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%.

Corporate events 

There will be several corporate events to keep investors busy, including Wells Fargo’s three-day Tech Summit to be held in Park City, Utah starting on December 3, as well as UBS’s two-day Annual Global Media and Communications Conference in New York City, also beginning December 3.

UBS’s event will feature a host of keynote presentations, including from Viacom’s (NASDAQ:VIA) CEO Bob Bakish, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) chief content officer Ted Sarandos, as well as Hans Vestberg, CEO of Verizon (NYSE:VZ), and Randall Stephenson, CEO of AT&T (NYSE:T).

Also, U.S. homebuilder Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) will release its quarterly earnings Tuesday, amid a sluggish housing market that has been contending with increasing household debt, higher interest rates, and rising mortgage costs.

In the meantime, select the Event Calendar option in the IBKR Trader Workstation for a full list of U.S. and global corporate events and earnings, dividend schedules, economic data, IPOs and more.

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The author does not hold any positions in the financial instruments referenced in the materials provided.