US Dollar Weekly Outlook: In One Word - Frail

US Dollar Chart

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US DOLLAR (DXY) PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

  • The latest NFP report highlights job market weakness.
  • Fed expected to keep monetary policy loose for longer.

The US dollar basket (DXY) hit lows last seen over two-and-a-half years ago this week as relentless selling kept forcing the value of the greenback lower. The backdrop for the US dollar has been deteriorating lately as the Federal Reserve continues to send out signals that it will keep monetary policy ultra-accommodative until a pick-up in the US economy is well underway.

In addition, the expected roll-out of a vaccine inoculation plan in the UK is boosting hopes globally that a cure for COVID-19 could soon be available to all, fueling a risk-on move in the market and further dampening the allure of the haven US dollar. Further, recent reports that talks on a fresh US stimulus bill are ongoing and that an announcement may be made soon added an extra layer of risk appetite.

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce that it will purchase more longer-dated US bonds at the December 15/16 FOMC meeting. The Fed will continue in its efforts to keep longer-term interest rates lower to help consumer borrowing and boost the ailing jobs market. The latest US Jobs Report (NFP) highlighted the weakness in the jobs market with 245 thousand new roles created in November, missing estimates of 469 thousand, and October’s downgraded print of 610 thousand from an original release of 638 thousand.

The US dollar basket (DXY) chart shows not just the ongoing weakness in the greenback, but also the lower acceleration this week. Lower highs dominate the chart and any areas of horizontal support are seemingly taken out with ease. The moving average set-up is negative after a ‘death-cross’ was made on July 2 around the 97, level and there is little in the way of support until the February 2018 low print at 87.90.

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