US And Europe May Announce Tariff Truce

The US reports the May Empire State manufacturing survey, and late today the April TIC data. Neither are likely typically market movers, though the Empire State survey is one of the first data points for the new month, which is barely half over. Among Fed officials, Clarida, Bostic, and Kaplan speak, but no new insight is anticipated after all three have spoken recently. Canada reports housing starts, new home sales, and its equivalent of the TIC report. The highlights of the week include CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. Inflation is expected to tick up while retail sales are forecast to be strong even if half the 4.8% gain seen in February. The week's highlight for Mexico comes at the end of the week in the form of March retail sales as well. A 1.6% gain would match the February increase.  

Last Tuesday and Wednesday, the US dollar traced out a CAD1.2045-CAD1.2200 range. It subsequently has been confined to that range. Initial support now is seen around CAD1.2100, and a break could see CAD1.2080. Near-term consolidation seems to be the most likely scenario. The greenback fell to four-month lows against the Mexican peso before the weekend (~MXN19.7540). It is in around an MXN19.86-MXN19.95 range so far today. Within the consolidation phase, it can trade into the MXN19.98-MXN20.04 area without changing the technical tone. Recall Mexico holds local elections on June 6.  

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Read more by Marc on his site Marc to Market.

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