Uptrend Holds Again

Last night the S&P futures needed to break 2828 to break the uptrend. Of course it did it by 5 points, and that was it. Boom! Up, up, and away!

Stock Market Trading Setup for Tuesday, May 13, 2020

S&P Futures Daily Chart 

The ES futures were up 20 at 2872 at 8:15 AM in New York.That’s down 56 from where they were this time yesterday. At the same time, it’s up 47 from the overnight low. Tradable? Only if you are staying awake all day and all night and trading the 5 minute bars. 

Or if your name is Algo.

They have traded in a range of 2825 to 2876 overnight and this morning. They came off the lower uptrend channel line and are now about 35 points above that line, give or take a few.  

Other than that trendline, additional support levels are around 2780, and possibly 2742, with the big one at 2706. Bears need to break that to show a downside reversal. 

ES Futures Chart

The daily oscillators tuned to an 8 week cycle are mixed, befitting the 4 week trading range. There’s no sign of a breakout either way yet. But a big move is probably coming, once the range breaks.

Rate of Change continues moving sideways near the zero line. Upturns from around the zero line are normally very bullish. Likewise, downturns from this level are typically very bearish.

MACD tuned to the same cycle has been moving sideways above the level reached in the Q4-Q1 advance. This signifies that the market is in trending mode. This indicator stayed near this level for 3 months before the market topped out. I wouldn’t get bearish until this turns down and price breaks support. 

Hourly ES S&P 500 Futures Chart

I can repeat what I wrote yesterday. The hourly chart is a mess, with the price moves not coloring within the lines. I’m beginning to wonder if there’s any point to drawing trend channels. As for outright levels, prior pivots seem to generate one bounce or retracement. Then they break.

It’s all noise all the time until they break out of the 2825-2945 range, or more narrowly, 2825-2895.

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