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ADP Private Payrolls vs BLS Nonfarm Private Payrolls Month-Over-Month

The ADP^® National Employment Report shows private employers added 37,000 jobs in April

“After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum. Pay growth, however, was little changed in May, holding at robust levels for both job-stayers and job-changers.” says Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP

Change by Industry Sector

• Goods-producing: -2,000
  . Natural resources/mining -5,000
  . Construction +6,000
  . Manufacturing -3,000
• Service-providing: 36,000
  . Trade/transportation/utilities -4,000
  . Information +8,000
  . Financial activities +20,000
  . Professional/business services -17,000
  . Education/health services -13,000
  . Leisure/hospitality +38,000
  . Other services +4,000

ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size

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Businesses with 20-49 employees have shed jobs 9 of the last 15 months.

This is not surprising because businesses of this size are the least able to handle Trump tariffs. Expect conditions to worsen.

ADP vs Nonfarm Payrolls Change Year-Over-Year

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ADP vs Nonfarm Payrolls Observations

• Depending on how fat the crayon, jobs have stagnated for somewhere between 12 and 18 months.
• The BLS consistently overstated jobs relative to ADP between May of 2023 and October of 2024.
• Since October of 2024, discrepancies between BLS and ADP have mostly been random.

ADP Total Employment by Employer Size

ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year

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Key Business Size Observations

• Between February of 2022 and February of 2025, the least important provider of job growth started accounting for a plurality of job gains.
• Large- and medium-sized employment has peaked and is now rolling over while small-business employment has stagnated.
• And as noted earlier, businesses with 20-49 employees are shedding jobs rapidly.

There is no driver for job growth.

Trump Demands Fed Rate Cuts

• June 4, 2025, 8:21 AM: ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!
• May 17, 2025, 11:11 AM: THE CONSENSUS OF ALMOST EVERYBODY IS THAT, “THE FED SHOULD CUT RATES SOONER, RATHER THAN LATER.” Too Late Powell, a man legendary for being Too Late, will probably blow it …
• May 13, 2025, 1:43 PM: FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done. What is wrong with Too Late Powell? Not fair to America, which is ready to blossom? Just let it …

Small Business Growth

Weakness in small businesses started before Trump was elected. However, Trump is hell bent on making matters worse.

Doubling steel al aluminum tariffs is one of the worst things he could do because that impacts small businesses dependent on steel that the US does not even produce.

Related Posts

January 6, 2025: Trump Claims Tariffs Will Make U.S. Steel Great Again, He’s Very Wrong

“Tariffs will make it [U.S. Steel] a much more profitable and valuable company,” said Trump.

Yes, at the expense of every user of steel in the United States including the United Auto Workers union, and of course every buyer of autos or parts in the US.

May 31, 2025: Trump Will Double Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50 Percent

Tariff madness continues.

June 4, 2025: Irony of the Year: Automakers Consider Moving Some Parts Production to China

China has a magnet stranglehold that causing some seemingly strange discussions.

Above, I stated “There is no driver for job growth”.

Strike that. There is now a net negative driver for job growth.

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