Triple Witch & The $1 Trillion Wave

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We're staring down what appears to be the single largest options expiration in the history of the business… 

…A multi-trillion dollar expiration cycle that's about to dislocate the entire marketplace.

Yes, it’s time for triple witching again!

What’s that you say? You’ve lived through triple witching before?

Not like this, you haven’t.

The September SPX AM settlement is carrying unprecedented open interest, with tens of thousands of contracts at key strikes, such as the 6500 level. 

Let me put that in real terms for you.

When you're dealing with a $6,500 product, 50,000 contracts means a hell of a lot more than it did when the SPX was trading at $4,000 just a few years ago.

The concentration is staggering. 

Just five products are absorbing almost all the market's firepower:

  • Tesla alone traded 6 million option contracts yesterday
  • SPY matched that with another 6 million
  • SPX added 3 million more
  • NVIDIA contributed 2 million
  • Combined, these handful of products represent over 17 million contracts

Meanwhile, entire sectors like energy managed just 36,000 contracts. 

Walmart did 100,000. 

Caterpillar? A measly 9,000.

When this massive expiration hits, hedges come off. 

Market makers have to either roll these positions or readjust completely. 

The dealer gamma has never been bigger because the open interest has never been greater.

And did I mention volatility is being artificially suppressed right now?

The scuttlebutt is that there is massive short interest in VIX contracts, keeping near-term vol quiet. 

But when this positioning unwinds, we could see the market go from down 20 handles to down 180 handles in the blink of an eye.

That will blow your pants off.

I'm taking the over on next week's $94 expected move. 

We could easily see $115 to $150 moves as this trillion-dollar wave crashes through the market.

The repositioning doesn't wait until expiration day. It starts before the Fed meeting. Monday and Tuesday are when the real action begins.

Don't let the quiet market fool you. 

This marketplace is ready to rock, and the triple witch is bringing a trillion-dollar wave straight at us.

Video Length: 00:23:11


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