I invite you to listen to the podcast I did with Jeffrey Hirsch (Trader’s Almanac) as we cover a lot about seasonality and the current bull market. 

In November 2021, IWM reached an all-time high at 244.46. 

In November 2024, IWM reached 244.98. 

Thursday September 18th high is 245.14. 

Triple tops or a launchpad? 

For starters, we would like to see a monthly close over 243.50 to sustain a bullish bias. 

Secondly, in my Economic Modern Family, Granny Retail and Small Caps are a thing-married to each other. 

Makes sense right?  

You need a strong consumer because of good wages and labor market to have sustained growth in US centric companies. 

Retail remains a huge laggard in spite of the 2025 highs.

XRT is 30% away from the 2021 highs - why? 

Of course, there are always caveats to watch for in every market condition. 

Tates rose and did not fall after the FOMC. 

The dollar firmed on a potential double bottom. 

Geopolitics remain a concern. 

Silver gained some traction versus gold-inflationary if continues. 

More.. 

On the chart, you see several ellipses. 

The first 2 on top show the all-time highs of 2024 and 2025. 

There's your potential tops or launchpad. 

Below, the Leadership indicator shows that IWM is now outperforming the SPY. 

That’s a good thing for small caps. 

On the bottom is our Real Motion indicator. 

The red dots cleared the Bollinger Band showing strong momentum on this move. It needs to stay above the BB however. 

There’s not much ere to support any kind of bearish case. 

Nonetheless, price action tells us all.. 

Watch the caveats but have fun for now! 

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