Trade Deal: A Reason To Buy?



As noted then, the monthly technical studies were strong and showed no signs of a top. AAPL gained another 1.6% last week, and is up an astounding 76.4% YTD. AAPL dropped below its monthly pivot at $261.47 (point a) two weeks ago, and had a low of $256.29 before rebounding sharply.

AAPL is now just 4.2% below its weekly starc+ band at $286.67. Its weekly relative performance (RS), which measures a stock or ETF's performance versus the S&P 500, made another new high last week. AAPL has been above its Weighted Moving Average (WMA) since June and is, therefore, a market leader.

Apple's weekly On Balance Volume (OBV) crossed back above its WMA in September and then retested the WMA before surging to the upside. The OBV made a new high in October as the resistance was overcome (point c).

Removing the concerns over a trade war helped take some pressure off stocks, but the economic data last week was not that great. The inflation data last week was mixed: a bit higher from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and lower for the Producer Price Index (PPI). More interesting was Friday’s Retail Sales numbers, which were up 0.2%, well below the consensus estimate of a 0.5% increase. If this is a sign that consumers are cutting back on their discretionary spending, it could be a problem in 2020.

The economic calendar is much heavier this week. We have the Empire State Manufacturing on Monday and the Philadelphia Fed Business Survey, Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales on Thursday. The weekends with an update on the 3rd Quarter GDP, Consumer Sentiment, Personal Income, and lastly, Consumer Spending.

The yield on the 10-Year T-Note was lower last week, closing at 1.819%. As noted last week, a close below 1.662% will indicate that the downtrend in yields has resumed. On the upside, a close above 2.0% will favor higher yields in 2020.



The Spyder Gold Trust (GLD) managed to close up just over 1% last week. This was the first close since early November above the Quarterly Pivot at $138.75. The decline from the September high of $146.82 has lasted fourteen weeks. Bloomberg reported in early November the largest outflow from GLD since 2016.

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In my Viper ETF Report and the Viper ...

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