Top 5 Charts Of The Week: Global Macro Currents And Stockmarket Signs

Here are some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. 

Hope you enjoy!

1. Global Manufacturing PMIs -- USA vs Rest of World: This is probably one of my most interesting economic charts right now; the divergence between the US and the rest of the world. 

We can have a pretty high degree of confidence that the gap here will close, it just comes down to how: Option A. US "catches down" to softer global growth, or Option B. the rest of the world catches back up (through a combination of stimulus and fading sentiment effects). 

The truth will probably be a mix of the two. Certainly, one to keep a close eye on. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

2. USDCNY: I wanted to include something on the USDCNY, and I have quite a few charts on the pair itself... but I thought about it, and if the rumors about a USDCNY element to a possible China-USA trade deal are true, then it could have wider reaching implications than just for the USDCNY. (rumor is that a stronger/strong Renminbi will be part of the trade deal)

The 4 charts below are from my Global Cross Asset Market Monitor and basically what I was hinting at is that if we do see a Renminbi strength clause in the trade deal it's likely to have spillover effects on all 4 charts: it could well be a catalyst to a weaker US dollar, and stronger Asian and EM currencies (and arguably the case is already there for this to play out). 

So watch this space.

(Click on image to enlarge)

3. Margin Call -- Margin Debt Accelerometer:  Here's an interesting chart, basically a bear market warning indicator; the year over year change in US margin debt [note it used to be called NYSE margin debt, but now FINRA publishes a broader set of data]. 

The basic concept is that when margin debt is contracting on an annual basis it can serve as a bear market warning signal (margin calls and lower risk appetite). 

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