Today's Trading Plan: Rallies Die Above 2100

Technical Outlook:

  • Nasty sell-off on Friday, that had only a marginal dip buy at the close. 
  • Overall, the market lost its 5 and 10-day moving averages and the last two trading sessions alone have wiped out the previous nine days of upward price movement. 
  • As a result, there has to be some worries that a possible double top has formed on SPX with a confirmation at 2025. 
  • SPY volume was well above average and one of the highest readings that has been seen in almost a month. 
  • Above 2100 a lot of rallies go on to die. That is again what we are seeing here. Weakness suddenly creeping in and the bulls fleeing. 
  • Between 2186 and 2102 on the 30 minute chart there is a lot of choppiness of late that could offer some support to SPX that has been in a free fall since Friday. 
  • Watch to see whether price action can find support at the 20 and 50 day moving averages today. 
  • VIX breaking out in a bit way on Friday, though I'd prefer it clear the 17's entirely, it nonetheless cleared the heavy resistance that has plagued it in the 16.40's. 
  • As a possible brexit approaches, expect the volatility to increase as well. 
  • I believe, at this point, profits have to be taken aggressively, and avoid the tendency to let the profits run - the market is in a very choppy range that has mired stock price for the past two years. Unless it breaks out of it and onto new all-time highs, then taking profits aggressively is absolutely important. 

My Trades:

  • Sold WYNN on Friday at $100.5 for a 1.1% profit. 
  • Sold UPRO on Friday at $66.98 for a 0.8% profit. 
  • Sold ZAYO on Friday at $27.55 for a 1.4% loss. 
  • Sold LNKD on Friday at $131.48 for a 2.1% loss. 
  • Currently 10% Long / 10% Short 80% Cash
  • Remain short QQQ at $109.92 and long one other position. 
  • Have the flexibility to go either way the market wants to take us today. 

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-13-16

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