Time Series On Term Spreads, Yield Curve Snapshots

Part of the yield curve is already inverted.

Figure 1: Yield curves as described. Source: Bondsupermarket.com

Notice that inversion occurs at the 2-3 year maturities; the key 10yr-3mo spread continues to decline, while the 10yr-2yr spread has stalled.

Figure 2: Ten year-3 month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year-two year Treasury spread (red). Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, Treasury Department, author’s calculations. 

The inversion at the 2-3 year maturities suggests lower short rates in the near future.

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