E Tie-Breakers

What Happened?

  • Australia November trade surplus shrinks to A$1.925bn after A$2.013 – less than A$2.2bn expected – even with record exports and imports. Exports rose 1% to A$38.445bn while imports rose 2% to A$36.520bn. In trend terms, the surplus was A$2.259bn off just A$7m from October. Exports saw a big increase in non-monetary gold up 60%, iron ore up 4% and a modest 1% gain in services, led by travel, while rural goods fell 1% - with 9% drop in coal and products. Imports rose with capital goods up 7%, while intermediate and services fell 1%.  


  • Japan December consumer confidence 42.7 from 42.9 – better than 42.0 expected – still the lowest since Nov 2016.This was the 3rd consecutive fall. 3 out of 4 parts fell - Household livelihood fell 0.2 to 40.6, employment fell 0.8 to 45.8, income fell 01. To 41.7 but willingness to buy rose 0.4 to 42.8. Inflation expectations dropped with “go up” down 1.3% to 83.2%, “stay the same” up 1% to 10.8% and “go down” up 0.3% to 4%. 

  • German November industrial production fell 1.9% m/m, -4.7% y/y after revised -0.8% m/m, +0.5% y/y – worse than +0.3% m/m expected. October revised from -0.5% m/m. Ex-energy and construction, production fell 1.8% m/m. Capital goods fell 1.8%, intermediate goods fell 1% and consumer goods fell 4.1%. Energy fell 3.1% and construction fell 1.7%. 
  • French November trade deficit E5.1bn from E4.1bn – better than E6.0bn expected. Exports fell 4.4% m/m, while imports fell 1.8% m/m. The current account deficit widened to E2.8bn after E0.3bn revised in October – worse than the E1.5bn expected. This was mostly due to the trade balance shift ex energy and US litigation fees with SocGen. Services were unchanged. There were E1.7bn of capital inflows. 

  • Eurozone December economic sentiment fell to 107.3 from 109.5 – worse than the 108.4 expected. There was drops in all sectors except retail trade. The ESI fell in all five of the largest economies (Spain -3%, France -2, Germany down 1.9, Italy down 1.4 and with Netherland off just 0.3. By sector – industry fell 2.3, services -1.4, consumer confidence -2.3, retail up 0.5 and construction up-1. Overall, employment plans fell most in construction then services but held flat in industry. The business confidence fell to 0.82 from 1.04 – worse than 0.99 expected. Production outlook fell sharply along with both domestic and export orders.  
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