Chart of SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) – The Week Ahead: U.S. Jobs Report and Market Resistance – Source: TheTechnicals.com and TradingView

March has finally arrived as we approach the tail-end of a rather brutal winter here in New York. The only thing that’s really been hot in the past few months has been the stock market. Here are some eye-opening stats for the popular S&P 500 ETF, SPY (as of the market close on Friday, 3/1/2019):

• 1-Month Performance: +4.80%
• Year-to-Date Performance: +12.20%
• Performance Since Late-December Low: +19.95%
• 1-Year Performance: +3.23%

S&P 500 Technicals: Resistance

The chart above clearly shows the exceptionally sharp rebound and recovery from the Christmas lows. Recently, though, the market appears to have bumped up against resistance around the $281 level. That level matches up against three highs that occurred in the fourth quarter of last year. In all three of those previous highs, price was unable to break out to the upside, and subsequently plunged. SPY tested that level earlier last week and on Friday, but was unable to break out.

On a brighter note, SPY is well above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and has risen around 20% from its recent lows. This places the S&P 500 pretty much in bull market territory once again. The question now is whether this will continue. In the week ahead, a major technical test will be if SPY can clear the noted $281 resistance level. If so, this may potentially clear a path back up towards September’s all-time highs, just short of $294. If not, current resistance may provide some significant pressure on the market.

The Week Ahead

For the most part, earnings season is at its tail-end. But there are still a few major companies that will be reporting. These include:

• CRM – Salesforce.com (Monday, After Market Close)
• TGT – Target (Tuesday, Before Market Open)
• KSS – Kohls (Tuesday, Before Market Open)
• WB – Weibo (Tuesday, Before Market Open)
• ROST – Ross Stores (Tuesday, After Market Close)
• DLTR – Dollar Tree (Wednesday, Before Market Open)
• KR – Kroger (Thursday, Before Market Open)
• BURL – Burlington Stores (Thursday, Before Market Open)
• COST – Costco Wholesale (Thursday, After Market Close)

Economic Data: U.S. Jobs Report in Focus

The week ahead will be dominated by Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The results of this report, especially the deviation from expectations, often make a significant market impact. And here are some of the other key economic events and releases scheduled for the week ahead:

• Tuesday, 10:00 AM ET – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• Wednesday, 8:15 AM ET – U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• Wednesday, 10:00 AM ET – Bank of Canada Overnight Rate and Rate Statement
• Thursday, 7:45 AM ET – European Central Bank (ECB) Main Refinancing Rate
• Thursday, 8:30 AM ET – European Central Bank (ECB) Press Conference
• Friday, 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (m/m)
• Friday, 8:30 AM ET – Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate