The S&P 500 Returns To Record Highs
The Fed's minions hit the news streams hard this past week, with most selling the message that the surge of inflation is mostly transitory and won't require the Fed to start boosting U.S. short-term interest rates before 2024. That message seemed to take hold among investors, with the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) returning to record high levels on the expectation that the outlook will hold. At least for now.
In the meantime, we find the trajectory of the S&P 500 falling well within the range of the latest redzone forecast in the alternative futures chart, which is based on the assumption investors will mostly focus on the upcoming quarter of 2021-Q3 over the next several weeks.
We weren't kidding when we said the Fed's minions were out in force in front of the news media during the past week. Their outsized role in an otherwise slow news week is really apparent in our roundup of market-moving news headlines:
Monday, 21 June 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed officials open debate on bond taper
- Analysis: Fed's "big tent" framework may fray under inflation surge
- Fed's Kaplan: Jump in rate expectations reaction to a stronger outlook
- Fed's Bullard: Last "taper" debate no guide what's needed in the current period
- NY Fed's Williams: Economic conditions have not progressed enough for a central bank to shift stance
- Fed's Powell sees 'sustained improvement' in an economy, notable rise in inflation
- ECB minions claim progress in changing inflation management policies, also claim Eurozone inflation is transitory:
- Wall Street ends sharply higher, led by surging Dow
Tuesday, 22 June 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions on board with higher inflation, won't raise rates anytime soon:
- ECB minions say not worried about inflation running hot:
- Tech leads way to Wall Street rebound as Powell promises steady hand
Wednesday, 23 June 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions getting comfortable with not-so-transitory inflation:
- Fed officials say "temporary" inflation surge may last longer than thought
- U.S. Fed reverse repo volume hits record $813.57 billion
- Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk
- Bostic: Fed should avoid 'prematurely' declaring win in jobs battle
- U.S. Fed reverse repo volume hits record $813.57 billion
- Eurozone showing positive recovery signs:
- Tesla lifts Nasdaq to record-high close, S&P 500 dips
Thursday, 24 June 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Job hole or inflation? Fed policymakers split over risk view
- Bigger inflation developing all over:
- Nasdaq and S&P 500 end at record highs; Dow rallies
Friday, 25 June 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions says inflation no big deal, Americans to go back to work in fall (after pandemic unemployment benefits expire):
- Mixed recovery signs in Asia:
- Bigger inflation developing all over:
- ECB minions really want to keep stimulus going, won't take success as a sign to stop:
- Nike, bank stocks push S&P 500 to new highs as inflation fear calms