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Data is from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.

There is not a big difference between men seeking jobs (27.4 percent) and women (29.4 percent) but there is a big age difference.

Percentage of People Seeking a Job by Age

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Age and salary are likely related. The younger you are the less skills you have and the lower on the pay scale you are likely to be.

I would have preferred more age classifications then the Fed provided, especially age 35 and under instead of 45 and under.

But the data is very consistent with financial stress.

Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge in the Second Quarter

For discussion, please see Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge in the Second Quarter

Over ten percent of credit card outstanding debt is over 90 days delinquent. Banks will be curtailing credit.

Credit stress is rising just as layoffs are increasing and it’s getting much harder to find a job if you lose one.

That newer issued credit is failing faster again suggests it is renters and generation Z that is most impacted.

But it’s not just Millennials and Zoomers. Delinquencies are rising in all age groups, just more steeply in age groups 39 and younger.

What About Fragmentation?

Fragmentation (asset holders vs non asset holders) has staved off recession until now.

But the kick-the-can dependence on asset holders has run its course.

Fragmentation will no longer save the economy.

Nor will Fed rate cuts.

A recession has started and it will intensify.

August 2: 2024: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered

August 15, 2024: Industrial Production Declines 0.6 Percent on Top of Big Negative Revisions

I have an update on the McKelvey indicator this week. Adding a second indicator to McKelvey yields no false positives and no false negatives dating to 1953.

I suppose it could be different this time, but it won’t be.

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