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Toll Brothers TOL is up 11% this year. Apple is only up 1%.

You're telling me Toll Brothers is better off than Apple AAPL? This is a home builder. With rates going up. Every home builder out there is like, "Yeah, with rates up like this, business sucks. Our margins absolutely suck. You should definitely not buy us."

But nevertheless, it still trades to the upside. We've come to complete and total stupidity with rotations.

Look at Costco COST. Just moved in four trading sessions from 930 to almost $1000. Moves 70 bucks. Tech stocks are not moving that much, literally.

Caterpillar CAT peaked at $723 yesterday. That crap is trading 680 today. What is wrong with people? It's had a $43 move. It's Caterpillar. This isn't a tech stock. This is large machinery that can't get out of its own freaking way, making moves the tech stocks don't even make.

That should concern you more than anything.

Welcome to Walmart WMT. Anytime you think this is a good investment, I want you to walk into a Walmart and tell me. 

At least Costco hired some real people. But you have fund managers that are like, "I can't put money into Microsoft MSFT anymore because it turns out it actually sucks." So they're panic buying this cyclical garbage instead.

Panic buy doesn't even make sense to me. But when you see stuff go on like this, it's really very manic in terms of trade, and that's never a good thing.

These rotations may end, but I can tell you how the rotations are gonna end. Could be very funky. We may actually see us start to buy tech and sell home builders and sell materials and sell industrials.

So here's what I'm watching. When this rotation stupidity ends - and it will end - you're gonna see these cyclicals get absolutely hammered. I'm watching for the moment Costco starts to throw in the towel. When XLP starts coming down, we rotate back to tech and out of all those other sectors.

Either tech gets hit so hard it pulls down the entire marketplace and kills those sectors, or they rotate back into tech and kill those sectors anyway.

Either way, XLP could be on the dance floor for a significant move to the downside.

When Costco finally throws in the towel, when these rotations flip, when tech starts getting bought again - you'll know exactly when it's happening and what levels to watch.

Because in a market this manic, timing is everything.

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