E The Rocky Path Towards A US Economic Recovery

Consumer spending contributed over 25 percentage points to the total 33.1% annual change in Q3 GDP. As the table below indicates, Americans stepped up their shopping after the spring shutdown, which had sent consumer spending sinking by a record 40% annual rate. Consumer spending normally accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity.

Already, there are signs that the recovery is losing steam. Industrial production declined in September, job growth slowed in recent months, and a growing list of large corporations have announced new rounds of layoffs and furloughs.

Most economists expect the slowdown to worsen in the final three months of the year as virus cases rise and federal aid to households and businesses fades.

In closing, The US economy desperately needs another large fiscal stimulus package.

Prior to the recent election, a $2 trillion stimulus package was almost negotiated. Hopefully, a new fiscal stimulus package will emerge early in the new year. 

(Click on images to enlarge)


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Arthur Donner 10 months ago Author's comment

Hi William

Bravo. I couldn't agree more.

As a Canadian who has studied and worked in the US, I have always admired your country, particularly its dynamic economy and the interesting and a bit bewildering political system. However, with all of its warts, I always took US democracy for granted.

Now, like many others, my admiration has sharply diminished. Particularly, I am also appalled by the selfishness of the 1%.

William K. 10 months ago Member's comment

I am relieved that I am not the only one so very snowed by the glowing reports of how great the recovery has been, reports that used the bottom of the valley as a reference point instead of using a similar time a year earlier. using selected data is what gave statistics that poor reputation a while back.

The terrible reality is that serious damage has been done, and will continue to be done, not only to those businesses that lacked resources to slide through this problem, but also to all of those families suffering financial pain, not only from loss if income but also from he deadly effects of inflation.

And it is proving to the populace, although probably not realized yet, that the federal banking gang is not concerned very much about the majority of the population neary as much as about the wealth of that 1%, or probably the 3% of the people on top.