The Red Rooster

The Euroland eleven who want to tax financial transactions are still grappling with definitions. While all of the European Union countries agree on taxing stock and bond sales they are in disarray over derivatives. GFMA SmartBrief reports that the leading proponent countries are split over the extent of the new tax, while striving to reach an accord before the European Parliament elections take place next month. Supporter countries include Germany. Italy, and France who want to woo voters with fierce "Tobin taxes" to be used to fund financial regulation and development. Other supporting countries are Spain, Belgium, Austria, Portugal, Greece, Estonia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Now the Tobin tax group are fighting over whether or not to tax derivatives (like puts and calls on shares; credit default and interest rate swaps on bonds and credit instruments; currency futures; and other swaps and futures used to offset risk.)

The Parliament is a boring and toothless arm of the European Union and its politics are irrelevant. But getting in a good left-wing law may help the troubled governments and coalitions of the pro-Tobin tax countries.

This law matters because that the Euro 11 want to tax transactions worldwide, not just in the signatory EU countries. If the issuer, the intermediary, or the purchaser of the instrument being traded is located in the European Union--and that is a lot of countries-- then even US trading of the stock, bond, or (perhaps) the derivative, would in theory be taxed too.

Some EU are skeptical that the tax will raise any revenues at all. They think all trading will move out of the EU to foreign markets. Among the skeptics in the same single market are countries with active financial markets like Britain, Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, along with Czech Republic, Poland, Cyprus, Malta, Rumania, Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania.

Non-EU countries like the US, Canada, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Switzerland stand to gain a lot of business if this silly rule gets passed. The late Nobel Laureate economist James Tobin, an American, proposed a tax on currency trading to limit exchange rate transactions in 1972. Perhaps a better name for what the EU countries are proposing now is a "Robin Hood tax", but the purpose now is to punish banks and brokerages, not to cut volatility.

More follows from Britain, Hong Kong, Finland, Israel, Spain, Portugal, China, Brazil, Colombia, Singapore, Denmark, Belgium, Australia, and Canada. We have an average down and a whole and a part sale today.

*With the eye of the market focusing on the issue of Alibaba shares to beginTuesday, note that our Tencent has another venture to rival it: a new video streaming service for first-run movies called Hollywood VIP, a jv where Warner Bros. has a minority stake. The idea is to rent movies to Chinese subscribers to stop digital piracy which cuts down on theater revenues. The TCTZF service is two years old but until now it only offered vintage rather than new movies. This is something like Netflix but the rental charges are much lower and of course most of the movies are Chinese. With fees as low as $1, Chinese netizens can view first-run movies 2 weeks after they open in theaters.

Hollywood has been unable to stop theft of its copyrights in China with pirate DVDs distributed on-line. Tencent and Alibaba fight over lots of different internet businesses: social media, e-commerce, gaming, mobile messaging, and now cinema.

*Delek Group via is multiple subs is raising NIS 2 bn in new loans in Israel, the eurodollar market, and euros, according to Globes Israel, a website. The reason seems to be that the Leviathan partners may go ahead in developing the monster Israeli offshore gasfield without giving Australian Woodside Pete a stake. This was told to the Sydney Morning Herald by CEO Charles Davidson of the Leviathan operator co Noble Energy (of Texas). DGRLY via 2 subs, Noble, and Ratio Oil (of Israel) agreed to sell 25% of their shares in Leviathan to Woodside but the deadline was missed because the Oz co objected to Jerusalem plans to limit depreciation allowances on the stake it would buy. After getting accord on taxes, Woodside turned around and made new demands that the Israeli and US partners compensate it for any new nasty Israeli regulations. There is also bad blood between Yitzhak Tshuva, DLKGF's controlling shareholder, and Woodside CEO Peter Coleman.

*The Financial Times today reports that Vale is claiming it had no idea that payments were allegedly being made to the 4th wife of the late president of Guinea by its partner in the country's Simandou iron ore bonanza, BSG Resources. BSGR is the company of Beny Steinmetz, a Swiss-resident Israeli who is accused by a Conakry parliamentary investigation of having acquired mining rights corruptly in 2008 before selling a half share to VALE in 2010. Vale paid $2.5 bn for its 51% stake in the Guinea mines, $500 mn up front, and also invested a further ~$610 mn in getting rail and power to the site before work was suspended by in Guinea investigation. Both Vale and BSGR are seeking arbitration. VALE stock plummeted although none of this is new.

*Thanks to reader SMH for a report by UBS on Global Logistics Properties of Singapore. UBS analysts cheered the shareholder vote backing the sale of its Chinese facilities to China Holdco. CH groups Chinese domestic institutions including a major insurer, Bank of China, and HOPU, a fund of Chinese state-owned companies and institutional investors. The spinoff will invest up to $2.5 bn in GBTZF in the deal announced earlier this year, pending shareholder approvals now given.

UBS also cheered the fiscal Q4 2014 operating numbers published today: record new leases topping 1 mn sq meters, a 91% occupancy rate, and 71% of leases being renewals from existing customers, and a quarter of Chinese leases being for e-commerce. All this before the new Chinese partners get to work. UBS thinks that with growing Chinese concern over food safety, "cold chain" refrigerated storage and logistics will play a greater role in GBTZF sales in the current FY. Capital spending on China facilities is expected to grow 30-40% under the new deal which can result in 2.5 mn cu me of new signings, according to management comments. A full Q4 report is still pending.

*At the same time, the stock of Guangshen Railway Co sank 7%. GSH yields 3.5% and the Red Rooster may come roaring back into the station. It is a proxy for Chinese export growth since its goods and commuter lines serve mainly the Pearl River basin where Chinese export factories are centered.

*More worryingly, Canadian Solar shares are down 13% today. The China-sourced photovoltaic cell firm should benefit from higher US solar cell prices. It operates in 3 key sectors: power plants, home systems, and ones for large generation for schools, factories, or shopping malls. SELL HALF so we have no money on the table. The selloff may be because GE is investing in solar power at a huge level in Welspun of India today and Google is investing even more. Aim for $26 and change.

*Teva reported that custirsen for prostate cancer failed its phase III trials. The drug from OncoGenex did not beat standard chemotherapy when added to the treatment of men with advanced cancer. OXGI stock lost half its value. TEVA is up modestly.

*In the recent whirl of drug industry mergers, Reckitt Benckiser is a leading contender to buy for ~$14 bn the consumer healthcare unit of Merck although there are other likely bidders as well: Bayer, P&G, Novartis, and Sanofi. RBGLY's old management was famous for tightly pricing its buys, but there is a new guy on top. Let's watch him.

*Nokia will report tomorrow and may include some hints as to how it will spread the wealth from selling its handset arm to Microsoft. NOK is Finnish.

*Frida Ghitis follows up on a Spanish stock she wrote up:

Abengoa plans to cash in on a major Chinese water project along with a strategic shift there. ABGB will shortly close on the euros 53 mn sale to a state-owned waterworks of its 92%-plus stake in the Qingdao BCTA Desalination project. It is giving up 25 years of high-risk revenues which might total euros 654 mn. ABGB also plans to partner with state sector power companies to reduce the need to finance Chinese infrastructure on its own.

*The central bank of Colombia, where Frida was born, today in a surprise move raised interest rates to 3.5% which boosted the peso and hit the share price ofEcopetrol. Its oil and gas are priced in US$ but its primary market is Bogota. EC is off 2.5% on the news.

*The price of Oi, particularly the non-voting preferreds, continues to fall as it begins its capital increase to merge wtih Portugal Telecoj. Some analysts expect the Brazilian cell-phone firm's stock to collapse to reais 2/sh from the current level of 2.4 as the issue proceeds. With the price down, Oi may have to sell 20% more shares than expected, plus another 15% via a green shoe overallotment. As Oi sinks, off 42% since the merger was announced, our Portugal Telecom rises because PT's stake in Oi is fixed under the merger accord signed with two major Brazilian families which are shareholders in the telco. Both companies are run by Zeinal Bava. PT will chip in Reais 5.75 bn in the form of its own shares to take control of the future jv while Oi has to sell shares to repay debt to the families.

*Bavarian Nordic began enrollment of patients in phase II trials of its CV-301 immunotherapy drug against bladder cancer. It is being tested with and without BCG after the cancer progressed after BCG treatment alone. Bacillus Calmett-Guerin is a standard TB vaccine which works in some bladder cancers. The trial is being financed by the US National Institute of Health National Cancer Institute. BVNYY is Danish but very good at getting US funding.

*Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its recommendation of Yandex at a buy despite Russian risks, but cut its TP to $33 from $38. I bought more YNDX at $23.8499 but it fell further to $23.405 as of this moment.

*Standard & Poor's reaffirmed its A+ rating of GlaxoSmithKline in the wake of the UK company's stock switch deal. GSK today launched its Anoro-Ellipta chronic obstructive pulmonary disease drug in the US. It also announced a phase III global trial of tafenoquine, its 8-aminoquinoline antimalarial drug, with the Medicines for Malaria Venture, a non-profit.

*BCE was downrated to neutral by Royal Bank of Canada today. The telco is in our yield portfolio.

*Galapagos's CFO resigned with effect May 1. GLPYY rose on the news which probably means it was for personal reasons. 

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