The Medium-Term Trend - Wednesday, Aug 9

Junk bonds were hit hard again today and it continues to confirm the short-term downtrend. This is a good ETF to watch when it looks like the downtrend is starting to bottom out.

The Containers and Packaging group is also confirming the short-term downtrend, and, just like junk bonds, it helps to watch this when you are looking for hints that the downtrend is bottoming and getting ready to head higher again.

The bullish percents were all headed lower today.

The medium-term trend might be starting to top out, but so far there is very little to support this view. The chart below is (maybe) one of the first charts to show some medium-term weakness.

The Leader List

The IBD Leaders are back on the leader list, and the Inverse VIX dropped off. Silver and the precious metals had a strong day.

Silver posted a 30-day new high today. I am following silver because it looks like it might be base-building.

I was really surprised by the strength in this ETF today. These are highly volatile stocks so it is encouraging to see this ETF do well on a down day for the market.

Volatility spiked today so as expected the inverse ETF sold off. This is a point in favor of the bears who are looking for a general market sell off.


John Murphy has pointed out that it has been a year since the market has experienced a 5% correction so it is overdue for a pullback. He also mentioned that we are entering the risky time of the year for market corrections.

The long-term outlook is positive.
The medium-term trend is up. Watching for signs of a peak.
The short-term trend is down as of July-28.

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...

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