The Market Appears To Be Over The Trade War Hype, I Know I Am

I can’t, I can’t write another post saying that stocks fell on trade headlines. Does today’s decline even count? The S&P 500 was only down 66 basis points, that is like a typical trading day, right? Can’t we say stock fell because they have been overbought and they needed to fall?

This trade….stuff… is ridiculous, and the headlines and the news is just nauseating. The Market has moved past it, it has. Had this happen in the Spring of 2019, or late last year, the Market would have fallen by 2 to 3%, there is no doubt in my mind. Now, all it warrants is a 60 basis points drop on the S&P and a 30 basis point drop in the Russell? My, how times have changed. Again, it goes back to what we talked about a week or two ago, for the most part, I think the Market mostly doesn’t care, or no longer belives all the doom and gloom that comes with the trade talk hype.

It was exactly one year ago that fears of recession galore were rampant through the Market place. Now a year later, we are no closer to recession today then we were then. The US economy grew at a respectful 2.1% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, most of the data we have gotten to this point in the fourth quarter is pointing to around 2.0% growth in the fourth quarter.

 

Consumer prices, remember the significant impact it was supposed to have on the consumer? Well, we are still waiting. Consumer prices have declined.

 

Maybe it because all the companies are absorbing the cost, and it is showing up in producer prices. Nope, not there either. Producer price ex-food and energy were up only 1.5% in October and have been falling.

 

So no price inflation, no recession, and tons of anxiety.

We have a nominal GDP of $21 trillion.

 

But yet, we are going to sink from a trade war with China, on what is now less than $500 billion of imports per year. Because the imports from China have been plunging in recent months, look at the chart below, I downloaded the data from St. Louis Fed and ran it in excel on a trailing twelve-month basis. Based on October’s data, imports fell to $486 billion from a peak of $540 billion in October of 2018.

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Disclosure: Michael Kramer And The Clients Of Mott Capital Own AAPL, NFLX, And TSLA

Disclaimer: This article is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moment's ...

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