The Federal Reserve’s new monetary statement sounds uncertain: maybe they will raise interest rates soon, maybe not. That wishi-washiness reflects the challenges they face, with good economic arguments on both sides.

The employment data have looked good in recent months, with job growth coinciding with a falling unemployment rate. (The two pieces come from different data sources, so it’s not redundant; they sometimes move opposite each other.)

Despite the good employment data, we’ve seen some disappointing numbers recently. Retail sales have declined for three straight months, starting even before the massive snow in the northeast. Business orders for capital goods, an important indicator of future capital expenditures, have also declined each of the last three months. Exports, too, have declined the last three months for which we have data. We’ve all learned not to read too much into any single monthly data point, but three months in a row, in three major expenditure categories, gets my attention.

The Fed has always said that their decision to raise rates will be data dependent. Even if you plied Janet Yellen with several martinis, she would not admit to having a specific plan, just some inklings and tendencies. (This is purely hypothetical; I have not run the experiment.)

WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 18: Federal Reserve Bank Chair Janet Yellen holds a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Fed headquarters March 18, 2015 in Washington, DC. Yellen said the Fed would consider raising its benchmark interest rate at its June meeting and warned, ‘Just because we removed the word ‘patient’ doesn’t mean we’re going to be impatient.’ (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Although the Fed officials look at all data, I don’t think they’ll be placing much weight on inflation. They know that there is a long time lag between Fed action and inflation, so any tightening now would be anticipatory rather than a response to current price increases. When the Fed does see too much inflation, then it’s too late and they stomp on the brakes really hard.

The Fed could begin tightening as early as June, which I predicted in my Interest Rate Forecast 2015-2016. However, as the last month’s data reports have evolved, the case for an August tightening is increasing. The Fed could very well wait until they know whether recent weakness is all weather or underlying soft spending.