The Fed Seemingly Clueless

Friday was a very disappointing day. It was not so bad a day as to rank in history alongside the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy or Bear Sterns collapse, but it nevertheless punctuated the abject failure of anyone with any monetary power to come to grips with an economy unlike any previously witnessed. About 8 years after the market crash we remain in uncharted waters—still far from what we have learned in the economic text books and far from writing new rules to guide our future.

The most noteworthy event on Friday was not the keynote address by the Fed chairperson, but the varied interpretations of what she said. The market initially interpreted Yellen’s literally. She said rate hikes would be gradual and that recent data indicated a rate hike might come sooner than later. Then along came Stanley Fischer who interpreted Yellen’s speech to not preclude two rate hikes in the very near future—suggesting the tightening might not be so gradual after all. The only thing seemingly in common between Yellen and Fischer was that both insisted monetary policy would be data-dependent.

We don’t think it too cynical to say that when we meld the two comments from the number 1 and 2 at the Fed we come up with the notion that anything is possible depending on data that we have no clue about. In other words, we don’t have any real clues about what it is happening in the economy but when it happens we will do our best to react. And if the Fed is clueless, it would seem the only real takeaway is that we should prepare for anything and everything.

Categorically, this harsh dose of pessimism does not mean that we should sell everything. Indeed, more than likely, we do know that stocks will follow historically easy monetary policy. A big problem: if one sells stocks, what can one buy? Bonds have morphed more into a trading tool than a financial instrument designed to assure you a long term income. There is cash, where the losses to inflation are small but still amount to losses. And finally there is gold, which we do recommend and recommend strongly, but one can only own so much of it (or gold stocks, for that matter) and feel comfortable.

Instead, when it comes to stocks, you must continue to focus on the kinds of investments that you either expect to grow if the monetary authorities and holders of the government purse strings finally do see the light. By that, we mean that they would at last begin to establish policies clearly designed to promote economic growth—in which government and private partnership invest and bureaucracy grows much more streamlined. Another investment strategy: focus on the kind of company that can grow in virtually any sort of economic environment. In other words, our advice remains very much the same as it has been. Please note, however, that pro-growth policies would mean more inflation and present a headwind to all-weather recommendations like Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Diversification among the secular, cyclical and insurance such as gold miners is essential.

Unfortunately, we must end with a note on increasing market risks. It is becoming increasingly difficult to see a segue into the kind of rationality we long for without another crisis in the interim, one that could even come close to matching what we witnessed in 2008. For example, government spending might lead to a temporary bout of commodity inflation and cause the Fed to tighten—perhaps at the worst possible moment—which could lead to a major decline in stocks. If we are lucky the decline would not cause the kind of wholesale disaster seen in 2008-09.

The most we can promise is that we do have indicators that have signaled past crises but not their severity. Though in the past these signposts have given enough warning, we can’t promise similar timing. We can promise we will be watching and special alerts if conditions call for it. We hope there is a long time to wait.

Disclosure: None.

See our Leeb's Real World Investing June issue for our recommended silver plays.

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