Dot plot from FOMC projection material

Please consider the Summary of Economic Projections from the FOMC Meeting on March 21-22, 2013.

Economic Projections

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Economic projections from FOMC announcement

Economic Projections Synopsis

• Interest Rates: The range of rate hike projections for 2024 and 2025 is stunning. For 2025 the top projection is 5.6 percent with the bottom at 2.4 percent. The Median December projection for 2024 is 4.1 percent. 
• Unemployment: For December 2023, the Fed projects unemployment will be between 4.4 and 4.7 percent. 
• Inflation: It will take until 2025 for inflation to return to the Fed's 2.0 percent target
• GDP: Year-over-year GDP (December 2022 to December 2023) will be weak, 0.4 percent to 1.0 percent. For 2023 the range is 0.0 percent to 0.8 percent. 

As usual, the Fed projects no recession as far as the eye can see. However, one participant forecast -0.5 percent, likely believing in a minor recession. 

Hooray!

Fed Says "Banking System is Sound", Hikes Base Interest Rate by a Quarter Point.

For the full FOMC statement as well as a short synopsis, please see Fed Says "Banking System is Sound", Hikes Base Interest Rate by a Quarter Point.

The Fed did not say anything about bank failures in the US or Europe nor anything about US dollar swap lines to foreign central banks. 

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