E The CBO’s Pessimistic But Realistic Outlook For The US Economy

And as of the fourth quarter of this year, the American unemployment rate is expected to average 10.5%, a high figure that is not all that different than June’s unemployment rate of 11.1%

One year ahead, the unemployment rate is still projected to be extremely steep, at 7.6%. And as of the fourth quarter of 2022, the US unemployment rate is projected to continue to be unacceptably high at 6.9%. 

Of course, the entire ten-year economic outlook is also quite grim because of the supply and demand dislocations caused by the pandemic.

Not surprisingly, as the accompanying chart illustrates, the US economy is projected to perform far better in the 2025-30 period than in the pandemic tainted previous five years.

In closing, there is no easy way to assess exactly what the economic damage from the pandemic will be on the US economy and its trading partners. Nonetheless, there is widespread agreement among economists that there will be severe negative global effects.

The CBO’s Economic Projections for Years 2020 to 2030

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William K. 2 months ago Member's comment

Certainly the damage from this plague, both direct and consequential, will not be undone quickly. The number of smaller firms that collapse will result in jobs that no longer exist. That part is obvious. The secondary damage, of the changing level of social interactions, may be more subtle and less obvious, but the damage to social interaction will also have an effect.

But the huge ogre standing in the shadows is that debt. It is the debt that will suck down a bigger portion of the GNP for many years, The big problem with debt is that it does, indeed, eventually need to be repaid. No convenient way around it.