The Bull Case, Case Study In Mania: DIS, Clissold Twitter Thread, Hedge Fund FOMO


person using MacBook Pro on table

The only way in which a human being can make some approach to knowing the whole of a subject, is by hearing what can be said about it by persons of every variety of opinion, and studying all modes in which it can be looked at by every character of mind. No wise man ever acquired his wisdom in any mode but this; nor is it in the nature of human intellect to become wise in any other manner 

He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that. His reasons may be good, and no one may have been able to refute them. But if he is equally unable to refute the reasons on the opposite side, if he does not so much as know what they are, he has no ground for preferring either opinion… Nor is it enough that he should hear the opinions of adversaries from his own teachers, presented as they state them, and accompanied by what they offer as refutations. He must be able to hear them from persons who actually believe them… he must know them in their most plausible and persuasive form – John Stuart Mill, On Liberty

I read those quotes as a 19 year old sophomore at UC – San Diego and they changed my life. It has been the cornerstone of my personal epistemology ever since: To understand an issue, you must look at it from all angles and perspectives. You especially must search out, understand from the inside and be able to refute the best that can be thought and said on the opposite side of your opinion on an issue.

Well, happily, I discovered what I believe to be the strongest bull case yesterday in an article by Rothko Research on Seeking Alpha titled “Letter To Equity Bears: Do Not Underestimate The Force Of Liquidity”  I can do no better than to quote from it at length:

  • In the past cycle, the Fed has become very sensitive to a sudden tightening in financial conditions, especially when equities start to fall aggressively
  • Another $5 trillion USD [Rothko Research is based in London] are expected to resume in the coming months, sending US equities to new all time highs
  • Any bear retracement in the near to medium term could be seen as a good opportunity to buy the dip.
  • It is not a good time to try to short equities
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