My bearish-on-bonds disposition has remain unaltered all year, and recent activity is pushing us toward what could be an important next step.

Of course, the really big step is already done: that is, the break of the long-term uptrend.

The next phase of this nascent bear market would be for TLT to break its horizontal support line at 111.12, which is a little over 1% away at this point. (Side note to my gold and diamond members: our MICE chart is even closer, about 0.88% away).

What will continued weakness in bonds mean? Rising interest rates of course. And what industry suffers heavily when interest rates are climbing? Real estate, represented below by IYR. Take note of what the 50/100/200 day exponential moving averages are doing vis a vis the price action.

I remain resolute in my point of view, with large January 2019 in-the-money puts on both TLT and IYR.