Tell Us Something We Don’t Know

ADP Private Payrolls for February were just released and came in slightly weaker than expected at 183K versus estimates for a reading of 190K. Futures are indicated modestly lower but are near their overnight highs, while oil is down and the dollar is on pace for its 6th straight positive day.  

One of the events getting some headlines this morning is the fact that the OECD has lowered global growth forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. Reasons behind the downgrade include trade disputes and uncertainty over Brexit. Is this really newsworthy? After all, it’s not as if any of these headwinds are anything new. The fact is that economic data around the world has been underwhelming for some time now. Check out the chart below of the Citi Economic Surprise Index for G10 economies. At a level of -34.10, it is currently just off what were its worst levels since 2012.



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