Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Risk Of Correction Still High (Q1-2020)

As discussed in this past weekend, the market remains overly extended as the recent correction sharply reversed on expectations for more Fed liquidity. However, with the market extremely deviated from the long-term moving average, a correction is once again a high probability event. 

“Previously, we discussed that we had taken profits out of portfolios as we were expecting between a 3-5% correction to allow for a better entry point to add equity exposure. While the “virus correction” did encompass a correction of 3%, it was too shallow to reverse the rather extreme extension of the market. The rally this past week has reversed the corrective process, and returned the markets to 3-standard deviations above the 200-dma. Furthermore, all daily, weekly, and monthly conditions have returned to more extreme overbought levels as well.”

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But it isn’t just the more extreme advance of the market over the past 5-weeks which has us a bit concerned in the short-term, but a series of other indications which typically suggest short- to intermediate-terms corrections in the market.

Furthermore, the markets are completely entirely the impact the “coronavirus” will have on the supply-chain globally. As David Rosenberg noted Monday:

“The impact of this virus is lasting longer and the effects, relative to SARS, are larger at a time when the Chinese economy is far softer. The follow-on effects on other markets has yet to be fully appreciated.”

Had the markets completed a correction that reduced the extreme overbought and extended conditions of the market, such would have offset the risk of the “viral impact” to the economy. However, without that correction, the eventual slowdown will likely have a great impact than is currently anticipated. 

However, even if we set aside investor sentiment and positioning for a moment, the rapid reversion is price has sent our technical composite overbought/oversold gauge back towards more extreme levels of overbought conditions.

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What we know is that markets move based on sentiment and positioning. This makes sense considering that prices are affected by the actions of both buyers and sellers at any given time. Most importantly, when prices, or positioning, becomes too “one-sided,” a reversion always occurs. As Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 states:

“When all experts agree, something else is bound to happen.” 

So, how are traders positioning themselves currently? 

Positioning Review

The COT (Commitment Of Traders) data, which is exceptionally important, is the sole source of the actual holdings of the three key commodity-trading groups, namely:

  • Commercial Traders: this group consists of traders that use futures contracts for hedging purposes and whose positions exceed the reporting levels of the CFTC. These traders are usually involved with the production and/or processing of the underlying commodity.
  • Non-Commercial Traders: this group consists of traders that don’t use futures contracts for hedging and whose positions exceed the CFTC reporting levels. They are typically large traders such as clearinghouses, futures commission merchants, foreign brokers, etc.
  • Small Traders: the positions of these traders do not exceed the CFTC reporting levels, and as the name implies, these are usually small traders.
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