The good news is:​ The breadth indicators held up well during the recent period of weakness.

The Negatives

Nasdaq breadth indicators have been weaker than the NYSE breath indicators. 

The Positives

The breadth indicators have been holding up well and March is one of the strongest months in the strongest year of the Presidential Cycle. New lows have remained insignificant. The recent period of weakness has attenuated the recent overbought condition.

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month.

 OTC NH stalled along with prices last week.

The next chart is similar to the one above, except, it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH, in green has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY NH continued moving upward.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.

 NY HL Ratio finished the week at 90%, very strong. 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

OTC HL Ratio fell last week finishing the week at a respectable 75%

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of March during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2018 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2018. There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.

Average returns for the coming week have been positive by all measures and stronger during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.

Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of March.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 3 (PY3)
 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals
 1963-3  -0.23%   0.33%   0.07%   0.29%   0.52%   0.98%
 1967-3   0.44%   0.00%   0.49%   0.33%   1.16%   2.42%
 1971-3   1.15%   0.17%  -0.26%   0.12%   0.23%   1.41%
 1975-3   0.65%   0.21%  -1.21%   0.74%   1.86%   2.25%

 1979-3   0.85%  -0.23%   0.95%   1.15%   0.16%   2.87%
 1983-3  -0.21%  -0.84%   0.72%   0.38%   0.04%   0.10%
 1987-3  -0.62%   0.61%   0.48%   0.24%  -0.12%   0.59%
 1991-3   0.96%   2.58%   0.16%   0.41%  -0.13%   3.98%
 1995-3  -0.13%  -0.81%   0.57%   0.05%   0.75%   0.44%

 Avg      0.17%   0.26%   0.57%   0.45%   0.14%   1.60%

 1999-3   2.59%  -0.20%   0.55%   0.26%  -1.28%   1.93%
 2003-3  -2.06%  -0.54%   0.61%   4.81%  -0.03%   2.79%
 2007-3  -1.15%   1.90%  -0.44%   0.55%  -0.01%   0.85%
 2011-3  -1.40%   0.73%  -0.51%  -1.84%   0.54%  -2.48%
 2015-3   0.31%  -1.67%  -0.20%   0.89%  -0.44%  -1.12%

 Avg     -0.34%   0.05%   0.00%   0.93%  -0.24%   0.39%

OTC summary for PY3 1963 - 2015 
 Avg      0.08%   0.17%   0.14%   0.60%   0.23%   1.21%
 Win%       50%     54%     64%     93%     57%     86%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2018
 Avg     -0.04%   0.31%   0.04%   0.30%  -0.01%   0.61%
 Win%       46%     56%     63%     66%     54%     68%


SPX PY3
 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals
 1955-3  -0.64%  -1.88%  -0.98%   0.64%  -1.73%  -4.59%

 1959-3  -0.11%   0.28%   0.07%   0.44%   0.12%   0.82%
 1963-3   0.97%   0.03%   0.17%   0.63%   0.11%   1.91%
 1967-3  -0.22%   0.07%   0.12%   0.29%   0.41%   0.68%
 1971-3   0.42%   0.08%  -0.16%   0.09%   0.18%   0.62%
 1975-3   0.77%  -0.69%  -0.91%   0.18%   1.22%   0.56%

 Avg      0.37%  -0.05%  -0.14%   0.33%   0.41%   0.92%

 1979-3   1.12%  -0.19%   0.58%   1.16%  -0.04%   2.63%
 1983-3   0.00%  -1.57%   1.06%  -0.70%  -0.37%  -1.57%
 1987-3  -0.81%   0.89%  -0.19%   0.31%  -0.46%  -0.26%
 1991-3  -0.31%   2.00%  -0.15%  -0.07%  -0.26%   1.22%
 1995-3   0.04%  -0.72%   0.21%   0.00%   1.33%   0.86%

 Avg      0.01%   0.08%   0.30%   0.14%   0.04%   0.58%

 1999-3   0.56%  -0.23%   0.55%   0.85%  -0.24%   1.49%
 2003-3  -2.58%  -0.84%   0.43%   3.45%   0.16%   0.62%
 2007-3   0.00%   0.59%  -0.25%   0.71%   0.07%   1.13%
 2011-3  -0.83%   0.89%  -0.14%  -1.89%   0.71%  -1.26%
 2015-3   0.39%  -1.70%  -0.19%   1.26%  -0.61%  -0.84%

 Avg     -0.61%  -0.25%   0.08%   0.88%   0.02%   0.23%

SPX summary for PY3 1955 - 2015
 Avg     -0.09%  -0.19%   0.01%   0.46%   0.04%   0.25%
 Win%       50%     50%     50%     81%     56%     69%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2018
 Avg     -0.02%   0.18%   0.06%   0.18%   0.00%   0.40%
 Win%       52%     55%     55%     63%     48%     59%

Conclusion

The market has been following the average pattern for the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle pretty closely and that pattern continues to be strong until July.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday March 8 than they were on Friday March 1.

Last week the SPX and OTC were up while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 were down slightly. So I am calling last weeks positive forecast a tie.