Technical Market Report - Monday, February 11

The good news is: Seasonally next week has been one of the strongest of the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle.

The Negatives

Nasdaq new highs deteriorated last week.

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month.

OTC NH stalled last week. This is not what I like to see early in the cycle.

The Positives

New lows have been insignificant and seasonally next week has been very strong.

The next chart is similar to the one above, except, it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH, in green has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY NH continued moving upward, but, at a slower pace.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.

 NY HL Ratio turned downward after breaking the 90% level, finishing the week at a very strong 80%. 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC HL Ratio declined a bit last week, but, finished the week at a positive 60%.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so diminishing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).

 OTC NL continued moving upward, reaching its highest level in the past 6 months.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY NL is very close to its highest level in the past 6 months.

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