Technical Market Report - Monday, February 25

The good news is: The breadth indicators have been strong and the secondaries are leading the way up.

The Negatives

The market is overbought; no change from last week.

The Positives

New highs continued to strengthen while new lows remain insignificant.

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month.

OTC NH continued its upward move.

The next chart is similar to the one above, except, it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH, in green has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY NH moving sharply upward.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.

 NY HL Ratio has been holding above 90%, very strong. 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC HL Ratio continued to move upward, finishing the week at a strong 83%.

Seasonality

Next week includes the last 4 trading days of February and the first trading day of March during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2018 while SPX data runs from 1928 to 2018. There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.

Average returns for the coming week have been weaker during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.

1 2 3 4
View single page >> |
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.