Technical Market Report For Saturday, May 1

SPX Summary for PY1 1929 - 2017

  • Averages -- 0.15% 0.52% 0.46% 0.31% -0.03% 1.40%
  • % Winners -- 57%     83%    74%    57%    39%    91%
  • MDD: 5/5/1981: 1.87% -- 5/7/1997: 1.77% -- 5/3/2001: 1.49%

SPX Summary for All Years 1928 - 2020

  • Averages -- 0.08% 0.15% 0.20% -0.05% 0.14% 0.51%
  • % Winners -- 55%    67%    62%    44%     51%     66%
  • MDD: 5/3/1930: 8.27% -- 5/7/2010: 7.60% -- 5/4/2000: 4.01%

May

Since 1963, over all years, the OTC in May has been up 62% of the time with an average gain of 0.7%. During the first year of the Presidential Cycle, the OTC in May has been up 79% of the time with an average gain of 2.7%. The best May ever for the OTC was 1997 (+11.1%), while the worst was 1970 (-13.0%).

The average month has 21 trading days. The chart below has been calculated by averaging the daily percentage change for each of the first 11 trading days and each of the last 10. In months where there were more than 21 trading days, some of the days in the middle were not counted. In months where there were less than 21 trading days, some of the days in the middle of the month were counted twice. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn after the first trading day and at five trading day intervals after that. The line is solid on the eleventh trading day, the dividing point.

In the chart below, the blue line shows the average daily performance of the OTC in May over all years since 1963, while the green line shows the average during the first year of the Presidential Cycle over the same period.

Since 1928, the SPX has been up 58% of the time in May with an average loss of -0.1%. During the first year of the Presidential Cycle, the SPX has been up 61% of the time with an average gain of 1.6%. The best May ever for the SPX was 1933 (+15.9%), while the worst was 1940 (-24.0%).

The chart below is similar to the one above, except it shows the average daily performance for the SPX in May over all years since 1928 in red, and the average daily performance during the first year of the Presidential Cycle over the same period in green.

Since 1979, the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been up 64% of the time in May with an average gain of 1.3%. During the first year of the Presidential Cycle, the R2K has been up 90% of the time with an average gain of 3.9%. The best May ever for the R2K was 1997 (+11.0%), while the worst was 2019 (-7.9%).

The chart below is similar to those above, except it shows the average daily performance of the R2K over all years since 1979 in magenta, and the average daily performance during the first year of the Presidential Cycle in green.

Since 1885, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 52% of the time in May with an average loss of -0.1%. During the first year of the Presidential Cycle, the DJIA has been up 59% of the time in May with an average gain of 0.9%. The best May ever for the DJIA was 1898 (+14.7%), while the worst was 1940 (-21.7%).

View single page >> |
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.