Technical Market Report For Saturday, March 20

Technical Market Report for Saturday, March 20

The good news is that the recent all-time highs were confirmed by everything that matters, so higher highs should be expected. 

The Negatives

New lows built up pretty quickly last week.

The first chart covers the past six months, showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19-day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. The NY NL trend has been plotted on an inverted Y axis, so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good). Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month.

This is not what you like to see. The implications of NY NL continuing to move downward are not good.

The next chart is similar to the first one, except it shows the OTC in blue and the OTC NL in brown. The information has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

The Positives

The previous highs were confirmed by the NY NH and the OTC NH. The implications are that higher highs lie ahead. The next chart covers the past six months, showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19-day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. 

The NY NH did begin heading downward a couple days ahead of the final SPX high, but the confirmation implies higher highs ahead.

The next chart is similar to the first one, except it shows the OTC in blue and the OTC NH in green. The information has been calculated with NASDAQ data. The OTC NH has been holding up pretty well.

The next chart covers the past six months, showing the SPX in red, and a 40% trend (four-day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio) in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level. The NY HL Ratio fell to 85%, which is still strong.

The next chart is similar to the one above, except it shows the OTC in blue and the OTC HL Ratio in red. The information has been calculated with NASDAQ data. The OTC HL Ratio fell to 74%, which is comfortably positive.

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