Technical Market Report For Saturday, Jan. 2

SPX summary for PY1 1929 - 2017

  • Averages --   -0.15% 0.78% -0.06% -0.24% -0.14% 0.18%
  • % Winners --    35% 70% 48% 52% 30% 57%
  • MDD 1/8/2001: 3.84% -- 1/8/1981: 3.66% -- 1/8/1969: 3.07%

SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2019

  • Averages --  0.11% 0.42% 0.03% 0.08% -0.10% 0.54%
  • % Winners --    49% 71% 51% 55% 46% 67%
  • MDD 1/5/1932: 7.02% -- 1/8/1988: 6.77% -- 1/8/2016: 5.96%

January

Since 1963, over all years, the OTC in January has been up 65% of the time with an average gain of 2.8%, the highest average of any month of the year. During the first year of the Presidential Cycle, January has been up 57% time with an average gain of 2.4% (helped considerably by gains of 12.7% in 1985 and 12.2% in 2001). The best January ever for the OTC was 1975 (+16.6%), and the worst was 2008 (-9.9%).

The average month has 21 trading days. The chart below has been calculated by averaging the daily percentage change of the OTC for each of the first 11 trading days and each of the last 10. In months where there were more than 21 trading days, some of the days in the middle were not counted.

In months when there were less than 21 trading days, some of the days in the middle of the month were counted twice. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn after the first trading day and at five trading day intervals after that. The line is solid on the eleventh trading day, the dividing point.

In the chart below, the blue line shows the average of the OTC in January over all years since 1963, while the green line shows the average during the first year of the Presidential Cycle over the same period.

Since 1928, the SPX has been up 63% of the time in January with an average gain of 1.2%. During the first year of the Presidential Cycle, the SPX has been up 61% of the time with an average gain of 0.9%. The best January ever for the SPX was 1987 (+13.2%), and the worst was 2009 (-8.6%).

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