Technical Market Report For Saturday, Feb. 13

SPX summary for PY1 1953 - 2017 

  •  Avg --   -0.10% -0.37% 0.26% -0.21% -0.13% -0.52%
  •  Win% --    46%    53%   65%    41%    47%    47%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2020

  •  Avg --  0.10% 0.01% 0.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
  •  Win% --   50%    57%    60%    49%    49%    60%

Money supply (M2) and Interest Rates

The following charts were supplied by Gordon Harms. M2 growth continued to level off.

Treasury rates at their close last Friday and their changes from last month:

  • 2-year yield: 0.109%, down from 0.129%.
  • 5-year yield: 0.487%, down from 0.448%.
  • 10-year yield: 1.210%, up from 1.090%.
  • 30-year yield: 2.014%, up from 1.837%.

A carefully managed yield curve.

The next chart is a close up showing just the past year from the chart above.

Conclusion

Last week we saw all-time highs in all of the major indices as confirmed by the secondaries, as well as 52-week new highs. New lows are non-existent and lousy Seasonality doesn’t seem to play a major part.

The strongest sectors last week were banks and electronics (up from the bottom last week), while the weakest were biotech and precious metals. I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday, Feb. 19 than they were on Friday, Feb. 12. Last week's negative forecast was a miss.

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