Technical Market Report For Saturday, Feb. 13

Average returns for the coming week have been mixed and worse during the first year of the Presidential Cycle than other years. The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)

  •   Year      Mon      Tue      Wed      Thur      Fri      Totals
  •  1965-1 0.43% -0.25% -0.40% 0.79% 0.21% 0.77%
  •  1969-1 -1.88% -0.74% -0.90% 0.53% -0.82% -3.82%
  •  1973-1 1.52% 1.06% -1.39% -0.79% 0.10% 0.50%
  •  1977-1 0.04% 0.29% 0.22% -0.06% -0.19% 0.30%
  •  1981-1 0.00% 0.05% 0.39% -1.02% -0.23% -0.82%
  •  1985-1 -0.32% -0.30% 0.61% 0.01% -0.22% -0.22%
  •  1989-1 -0.27% 0.19% 0.67% 0.24% 0.37% 1.19%
  •  1993-1 0.00% -3.64% -0.90% 0.46% 0.18% -3.90%
  •  1997-1 0.00% 0.00% -0.12% -1.33% -0.97% -2.42%
  •  Avg --   -0.30% -0.93% 0.13% -0.33% -0.18% -1.23%
  •  2001-1 0.76% -2.49% 2.62% 2.47% -4.99% -1.64%
  •  2005-1 0.30% 0.30% -0.09% -1.25% -0.13% -0.86%
  •  2009-1 0.00% -4.15% -0.18% -1.71% -0.11% -6.16%
  •  2013-1 -0.06% -0.17% 0.33% 0.06% -0.21% -0.06%
  •  2017-1 0.52% 0.32% 0.64% -0.08% 0.41% 1.81%
  •  Avg --   0.38% -1.24% 0.66% -0.10% -1.01% -1.38%

OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2017

  •  Avg --  0.10% -0.73% 0.11% -0.12% -0.47% -1.09%
  •  Win% --   60%    46%    50%    50%    36%    36%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2020

  •  Avg --  0.14% -0.04% 0.15% 0.16% -0.14% 0.22%
  •  Win% --  61%    53%    60%    62%    48%    60%

SPX PY1

  •    Year      Mon      Tue      Wed      Thur      Fri      Totals
  •  1953-1 -0.35% -0.58% -0.08% 0.35% 0.23% -0.43%
  •  1957-1 -1.73% -0.42% 1.53% -0.12% 1.21% 0.47%
  •  1961-1 -0.59% 0.44% 0.83% 0.61% -0.32% 0.98%
  •  1965-1 -0.12% -0.46% 0.12% 0.33% 0.19% 0.05%
  •  1969-1 -1.19% -0.63% 0.48% -0.31% -0.01% -1.67%
  •  1973-1 1.20% 0.62% -1.44% -0.56% 0.46% 0.28%
  •  1977-1 0.52% 0.30% 0.46% -0.57% -0.43% 0.27%
  •  Avg --  -0.03% 0.05% 0.09% -0.10% -0.02% -0.02%
  •  1981-1 0.00% 0.65% 0.52% -1.46% -0.02% -0.30%
  •  1985-1 -0.92% 0.03% 1.55% -0.51% -0.44% -0.31%
  •  1989-1 0.18% -0.25% 0.83% 0.19% 0.66% 1.62%
  •  1993-1 0.00% -2.40% -0.14% -0.32% 0.54% -2.33%
  •  1997-1 0.00% 0.97% -0.47% -1.19% -0.13% -0.82%
  •  Avg --   -0.37% -0.20% 0.46% -0.66% 0.12% -0.43%
  •  2001-1 1.18% -0.87% -0.22% 0.81% -1.89% -0.98%
  •  2005-1 0.07% 0.33% 0.02% -0.79% 0.07% -0.30%
  •  2009-1 0.00% -4.56% -0.10% 0.07% -2.39% -6.98%
  •  2013-1 -0.06% 0.16% 0.06% 0.07% -0.10% 0.12%
  •  2017-1 0.52% 0.40% 0.50% -0.09% 0.17% 1.51%
  •  Avg --   0.43% -0.91% 0.05% 0.01% -0.83% -1.33%
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