Technical Market Report For Saturday, April 3

The next chart is similar to the one above, except it shows the OTC in blue and the OTC HL Ratio in red. The information has been calculated with Nasdaq data. The OTC HL Ratio finished the week at 67% and has been rising sharply.

Seasonality

Next week includes the five trading days prior to the second Friday of April, all during the first year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change on a percentage basis for that period. The program counts Fridays, and with Good Friday usually falling in April, various years are often off by a week.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2020, while SPX data runs from 1928 to 2020. There are summaries for both the first year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. 

Average returns for the coming week have been historically mixed, but much stronger during the first year of the Presidential Cycle than other years. The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)

  •   Year    Mon      Tue      Wed      Thur      Fri      Totals
  •  1965-1 0.37% 0.18% 0.16% 0.55% 0.57% 1.84%
  •  1969-1 0.29% -0.21% -0.53% -0.70% 0.15% -1.00%
  •  1973-1 0.65% 0.70% 0.42% 0.26% -0.32% 1.71%
  •  1977-1 0.36% 0.73% 0.04% 0.95% 0.27% 2.35%
  •  1981-1 -0.65% 0.23% 0.49% 0.52% 0.58% 1.18%
  •  1985-1 0.16% 0.43% 0.37% -0.08% -0.11% 0.78%
  •  1989-1 0.10% 0.58% 0.52% -0.44% 0.92% 1.69%
  •  1993-1 1.02% 0.11% 0.02% -0.54% -0.53% 0.08%
  •  1997-1 1.19% 0.48% -0.64% -1.09% -2.34% -2.40%
  •  Avg -- 0.36%   0.37%   0.15%  -0.32%  -0.29%   0.26%
  •  2001-1 -2.64% 0.71% 8.12% 4.94% -0.86% 10.28%
  •  2005-1 0.32% 0.41% -0.01% 0.98% -0.96% 0.74%
  •  2009-1 0.05% -1.67% 0.07% 2.68% 0.16% 1.28%
  •  2013-1 0.57% 0.48% 1.83% 0.09% -0.16% 2.82%
  •  2017-1 0.89% -0.12% 0.23% 0.92% -0.11% 1.81%
  •  Avg --  -0.16%  -0.04%   2.05%   1.92%  -0.39%   3.39%
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