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We rallied from 6362 all the way back to 6422 today.

Sounds good, right? Dip buyers showing up, market resilience, all that happy talk.

Here's what actually happened...

I've been watching this market get boxed into the same 200-point range since late June. 6250 to 6450. That's it. We've been ping-ponging inside this volatility box for seven weeks.

Today we touched the bottom of that box and bounced. But here's the kicker - when we briefly broke above 6450 a few weeks back, we didn't explode higher like we should have. We just... drifted.

That's not how breakouts work when they're real.

Right now, we're sitting at 6411. Close to that 6450 ceiling again. If we break above it and hold? Like a door swinging wide open to the upside.

But I'm watching something else entirely...

The advance-decline line was positive today while the S&P was down 20 handles. Tech was getting absolutely hammered - Palantir went three standard deviations out at one point - but somehow 60% of stocks were green.

You know what that is? Pure rotation. Money fleeing magnificent tech like rats off a sinking ship.

And rotation works... until it doesn't.

Here's my concern: Tech has become so massive, it's got gravitational pull. When these stocks really start to fall - not just profit-taking, but real selling - they're going to drag everything down with them.

I keep calling Nvidia the Death Star for a reason. This thing moves, everything moves.

The market's pricing about a $62 move through Friday's expiration. We already moved 60+ handles today. Either volatility is completely wrong about what's coming, or traders are sleepwalking into Jackson Hole.

Look, I don't care what Powell says on Friday. Bonds were dead flat today. This isn't about interest rates.

This is about whether rotation becomes capitulation.

And there's one level that tells me everything I need to know: SPX 6360. 

That's the lower edge of the expected move through Friday. We kissed it today and held.

Break below that? All hell breaks loose.

The complete setup - including why volatility isn't screaming yet and what I'm watching for the snap - is in today's breakdown.

This market's got more moving parts than usual. Don't trade it blind.

Video Length: 00:13:10

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