TalkMarkets Tuesday Talk: Markets Ignore Trump Bump In The Road

Joe Biden is the presumptive President-elect and the stock markets have for now ignored the possibility of any negative fall-out from President Trump's legal challenges to the election results. Yesterday the Dow gained 835 pts., closing at 29,158, the S&P 500 gained 41 pts., closing at 3,551, while the Nasdaq lost 181 pts, closing at 11,714. Dow and S&P futures are currently green, while Nasdaq futures are red, the former continuing to reflect optimism about a COVID-19 vaccine with tech stocks taking an opportunity to cool-off, if only slightly.

Biden and Trump

Seth Golden in his TalkMarkets exclusive, Clouds Are Parting And Some Clarity Appears For Investors, says that if you jumped off the rollercoaster before the election it was probably to your detriment, but that it is not a reason not to jump back on, now. It's a long article, with a market sector by sector analysis of where we are and where the different market sectors may be headed. A good primer for the week and weeks ahead. Here are some of the highlights:

  • "For those who took an "all cash" position at the end of October, they were kicking themselves through the first week of November because they likely reacted to poor price action without a more confident and longer-term game plan. Now things have changed, shifted from a bearish developing situation to a more bullish developing situation."
  • "For each of the last several election cycles, we've seen inflows of capital for equities. Let's not forget about the vaccine. The market may be beginning to anticipate the *tsunami* of Phase III readouts for vaccines and therapeutics that we are going to see over the next 6 weeks. Many of these are likely to be positive developments." - Monday's trading session on the Pfizer (PFE) news, showed just that.
  • "I remain of the opinion that the economic data collectively points to a normalization of economic expansion, but one that is dependent upon the shape of the epidemic curve i.e. COVID-19 infection rate. As the infection rates rise, hospitalization rates follow and economic activity regresses, to some degree, where the aforementioned occurs."
  • "There is always a cloud of uncertainty surrounding the market, but with the election now having taken place, and a victor determined, investors can breathe a little easier. There is one layer of uncertainty removed, even if temporarily. What may matter most to investors is the Fed, even over the President. The most powerful person in Washington is still the Fed Chair. "

The Staff at ReadTheTicker.com in their article, US Dollar Weakness Promotes Bitcoin, discuss the impact of the election on the US Dollar (weaker) noting, "A lower US dollar suggests anti-US dollar trades will do well, and the biggest anti-US dollar trade in the news at the moment is bitcoin. We see a nice pattern of accumulation followed by advancing price action into upper resistance, no doubt all-time high prices are near."

Their near term outlook for Bitcoin (BITCOMP) is shown in the two graphs below:

"Late December 2020 to mid-January 2021 should see price top out near $20,000 resistance, and most likely build a consolidation pattern as we must expect supply to arrive at resistance and then finally to break out into all-time highs." - Stay tuned.

TalkMarkets contributor Fiona Cincotta  crosses the pond to reflect on market sentiment in the UK. Writing in Stocks Calm After Vaccine Euphoria she finds that, "Vaccine euphoria sent European stocks to 8-month highs. Wall Street surged to record highs on vaccine optimism, before closing off the highs. A calmer more questioning mood is dominating on Tuesday as European bourses are heading out of the blocks mixed as the market acknowledges that there are still many questions surrounding Pfizer’s vaccine announcement." 

Regarding Brexit Cincotta cites renewed pressure on the Prime Minister to get a deal done. "The Pound (FXB) remains broadly supported by Brexit optimism. Reports of progress between the EU and the UK suggests that a trade deal could still be achieved. With Biden entering the White House and a quick trade deal with the US looking less likely Boris Johnson will now have extra motivation to get a deal done."

Lorimer Wilson takes a pause from all the good news to draw our attention to one stock that, perhaps surprisingly, did not do well in Q3 due to the pandemic. In Q3 Financial Report Shows How Hard COVID-19 Affected Beyond Meat Inc., Wilson take us through Beyond Meat's numbers and cites the following remarks by the company's CEO, Ethan Brown regarding Q3 performance:

  • "Our financial results reflect a quarter where for the first time since the pandemic began, we experienced the full brunt and unpredictability of COVID-19 on our net revenues and accordingly, throughout our P&L.
  • Unlike the second quarter where record retail buying and freezer loading by consumers offset the deterioration of our foodservice business as COVID-19 stay-at-home and related measures set in, the long tail of retail stockpiling by consumers, coupled with continued challenges across the majority of our foodservice customers, led to Q3 results that were lower than we expected."

A bit of a  micro-look at some of the collateral damage in the restaurant and hospitality industry caused by COVID-19 or so it were. No real reason to worry however, as Wilson concludes with this to say about the stock (BYND): "Beyond Meat went public in May 2019 with an IPO at US$25/share and has never looked back trading at $150.50 as of today and now has a market capitalization of US$11.2 billion."

Garrett Baldwin rounds out today's column with a few stock tips for the risk inclined in 3 Best Sports Gambling Stocks To Buy Now. Looking elsewhere on state ballots Baldwin reports, "There was one clear winner in Tuesday's election, and I'm not talking about the presidency. Legal sports gambling swept victories everywhere it was on the ballot...Voters approved sports gambling by a wide margin in Louisiana, Maryland, and South Dakota by comfortable margins. It seems people love to bet on sports, and states love the tax revenue sports betting can generate."

Here are Baldwin's top 3 picks to help investors make hay of those election results:

1. DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)

"DraftKings is known for its daily fantasy sports games, where players compete against each other by choosing players they think will have the best performance in each game. But DraftKings is expanding into betting too. It's currently offering sports betting services in seven states, including the massive New York and New Jersey markets. Its daily fantasy sports products are available in eight countries internationally with 15 sports categories.

Earnings will grow at 40% or more a year, and the stock will continue to power the shares to much higher prices."

2. Penn National Gaming Inc. (PENN)

"Penn is primarily known as the owner of casinos and racetracks around the United States. It is a big player in sports betting as it currently operates live sports betting at its properties in Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

That makes it one of the key players in the industry, but the reason this is one of the best stocks to own in this space is because of Barstool Sports. Penn National bought 36% of the company last year for $163 million in cash and stock. In three years, it will increase its ownership to 50% for another $62 million. Joining Barstool's image and audience with a sports gambling app could do wonders for Penn National.

Earnings for Penn National should also grow at better than 40% a year for the next five years, at least. That should continue to drive the stock price higher."

3. International Game Technology Plc. (IGT)

The company is potentially a sleeper sports betting stock with massive potential. It is best known as a lottery operator and slot machine company, but it has a sports betting operation as well.

International Game Technology shares have taken a beating this year as a result of COVID-19. The potential for an earnings recovery in 2021 driven by sports gambling and the reopening of casinos could give investors huge profits over the next year."

With the hope that the results of the Presidential election are completely tallied by next week, I leave you with this quote from F.D.R.:

"Let us never forget that government is ourselves and not an alien power over us. The ultimate rulers of our democracy are not a President and senators and congressmen and government officials, but the voters of this country."

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