Sugar Rush! Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash

Deflation Set To Return

That brings us to the hard truth.

If we assume even the most optimistic economic outcome of the current stimulus bill, the reality is that economic growth will remain mired in its long-term downtrend.

As the budget deficit grows over the next few years, interest payments alone will absorb a larger chunk of tax revenue. Such comes at a time when that same dollar of tax revenue only covers the entitlement spending of the 75-million baby boomers migrating into the social safety net.

By the way, the only other time government income support exceeded taxes paid was during the “Great Depression” from 1931 to 1936.

The debt problem remains a massive risk to monetary and fiscal policy. If rates rise, the negative impact on an indebted economy quickly depresses activity. More importantly, the decline in monetary velocity clearly shows that deflation is a persistent threat.

Sugar Rush Economy Crash, Sugar Rush! Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash.

No Real Options

There are no real options unless the system is allowed to reset painfully.

Unfortunately, given we now have a decade of experience of watching monetary experiments only succeed in creating a massive “wealth gap,” maybe we should consider the alternative.

Ultimately, the Federal Reserve, and the Administration, will have to face hard choices to extricate the economy from the current “liquidity trap.”  However, history shows that political leadership never makes hard choices until those choices get forced upon them.

Most telling is the current economists’ inability, who maintain our monetary and fiscal policies, to realize the problem of trying to “cure a debt problem with more debt.”

The Keynesian view that “more money in people’s pockets” will drive up consumer spending, with a boost to GDP being the result, has been wrong. It hasn’t happened in 40 years.

As Dr. Woody Brock aptly argues:

“It is truly ‘American Gridlock’ as the real crisis lies between the choices of ‘austerity’ and continued government ‘largesse.’ One choice leads to long-term economic prosperity for all; the other doesn’t.”

Take your pick.

While we likely see a spark of inflation, it probably won’t last long. Eventually, the grip of the debt-driven deflationary cycle will regain its burdensome hold.

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