Market Analysis Each March, the USDA surveys US producers to get an initial idea of their prospective plantings for the upcoming year. The results of this sampling will be released on March 31. Because of last year’s US dryness hurting yields and China returning to the world feedgrain & protein markets to rebound their pork production, higher prices are expected to increase US plantings to their highest level in 7 years.

After cold/wet spring conditions and the N. Plains corn (CORN) harvest not being finalized until last April, about half of 2019’s record 19,6 million acre prevent plant program remained in this USDA’s farm program last year. These fields are expected to provide a significant portion of 2021 ‘s sharp jump in US plantings. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum economic based forecasts jumped the 8 major US field crops 9.1 million to 254 million acres last month. Given the current expanding vaccination program lifting the world’s Coronavirus cloud, slightly higher US seedings are expected later this month on better economic times ahead.

This spring’s drier N. Plains soil conditions suggests a high percent of 2020’s 4.7 million PP acres ln this region will return to crop production. Given the current high corn & oilseed prices along with the agronomic needs of post prevent plant soils, a high portion of these acres will be devoted to corn & soybeans (SOYB). This also likely means lower spring wheat, durum (WEAT), oats, and barley seedings vs. last year.

2020’s Midwest Derecho will switch many fields to soybeans to help control their volunteer corn problem. Last year’s lower continuous corn yields because 2020’s late season dryness could also boost bean acres along higher corn fertilizer prices this winter. Overall, a 500,000 jump in corn to 92.5 million and 1 million increase in beans to 91 million acres are expected vs the Ag Forum forecasts.

Interestingly, last March’s corn plantings jumped sharply on the COVID news, but 7 out of past 13 years corn’s acres have changed less than a million vs the USDA’s Ag Forum forecast. Soybean intentions have also been lower than the USDA outlook 8 of the last 13 years.

What’s Ahead

Grain & oilseed prices have been in a holding pattern as mixed US & S America weather has improved the US Plains & Argentina soils while heavy rains have impacted Mato Grasso & the US Delta/ Ohio River Valleys.

China’s recent 2.3 mmt US corn purchase didn’t impact prices either. Maybe Brazil’s crop sizes are market’s key factors. Still like old-crop sales are at 90-95% & new-crop marketings are 20-25%.