US Markets

• S&P 500 Futures +1 point
• US 10-Year 1.83%
• Dollar Index 97.58
• VIX 13.22
• Oil $55.53

International

• Japan -0.57%
• HSI -0.44%
• Shanghai -0.50%
• KOSPI -0.59%
• DAX -0.33%
• UK -0.11%

MACRO

ADP Payroll +125,000 vs. Est. +100,000

Today is the big day with Jay Powell on deck for a 2:30 press conference. Expectations are for the Fed to cut rates today by 25 basis points. Additionally, the market will be listening closely to how the Fed will position the rest of 2019 and beyond. I can’t imagine that the Fed will veer too much from its data dependency and its standing ready to act to maintain the expansion mode.

S&P 500 (SPY)

The general trend in the S&P 500 is still higher, and my expectation is for the index to continue to trend higher. After all, it would seem that the index is first breaking out in a meaningful way. 

ACWI

We can also see that the ACWI has broken out, and now $75 should act as support.

Industrial ETF (XLI)

The industrial sector is very close to a massive break out around $79, with the next region of resistance around $81.

Biotech ETF (XBI)

The biotech XBI is also breaking a downtrend and could be on its way $85.25.

STOCKS

AMD (AMD)

AMD is down about 50bps this morning to around to $32.85. The big question here for AMD is what happens now because the uptrend is now broken, along with a new downtrend with the risk of the stock falling towards $31.40.

Micron (MU)

Micron stock has hit resistance level around $48.70, and at least on the first attempt failed. So we will have to watch this level if it fails again. The stock could drop back to $45.50.

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix stock has been acting better, but still needs to get over $285.

Starbucks (SBUX)

Starbucks needs to get back over $84.80 to the potential rise to around $91.50.

Caterpillar (CAT)

Caterpillar broke out of a long-term downtrend that started in October 2018, and $157 seems possible.

Have a good day.