Stocks And Precious Metals Charts - Let The Chips Fall Where They May

Stocks were wobbling around again today. Since they have already retraced 50% of their big decline as shown on the futures charts below, a consolidation and decision point is natural.

There is no clear chart formation to reliably forecast the direction of the next move. Several exogenous factors weigh on this.

The first is, of course, the simmering China-US trade war. A breakdown in talks would most likely cause equities to break to the downside, especially if it involves the activation of more tariffs. 

The global economy is struggling, and this impacts and includes the US. Anything like a fresh trade war, or an unmanaged 'dirty' Brexit, might shock traders negatively.

Secondly, the Fed is still a major factor, although the likelihood of two more rate increases this year to 3.00$ has been greatly discounted in the futures markets.

There will be an FOMC meeting next week, and the markets will be watching what the Fed does, and especially what they say about their outlook for the rest of the year. I think there is a good possibility of a 25 bp increase, with hints of a more data-oriented, vigilant outlook for a second. Unless something unexpected happens I suspect that a third rate increase this year looks unlikely.

Gold continues to mark its place, tied up in the whole 'waiting' mode in the markets. At this point silver is following, yet to be unleashed.

After the bell, Intel beat earnings estimates but posted a clear miss on revenues. Since earnings are much easier to gimmick up in the short run vis accounting strategies, the big revenue miss had quite the negative impact on the stock which had been rallying into the close on expectations of a bigger beat.

Have a pleasant evening.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

1 2
View single page >> |
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.