This post will use Weinsteins Stage Analysis to examine where we are in both Gold and the USD. For this analysis, I will use Weekly charts and highlight the Weekly 30ema as a guidepost for our analysis.

First let's start with a bit of History and go back to 1998 to 2002 to examine the transition in Gold and the HUI from Stage 4 Bear, to Stage 1 Basing to Stage 2 Bull Market.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

Fast forward to today and we can see that the 30ema seems to have found a bottom but in 2017, it seems to be a midpoint for price and is not yet providing strong support at major lows for either Gold or GDX.  My last chart on GDX shows a potential Fractal.  Will history repeat?  Time will Tell.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

My last chart is on the USD.  If the USD is close to finding a Yearly Cycle Low (YCL), the 30ema should still continue to provide resistance near Intermediate Cycle Tops if the USD’s 15 Year SuperCycle has topped.

(Click on image to enlarge)